This will probably get me lots of hate mail, but here goes. Today, I want to discuss the “America-is-doomed” school of thought and why it’s toxic for your portfolio.

The list of baseless conspiracy theories in public circulation gets longer (and weirder) every day. You’ve doubtless heard many of them. My personal favorite: California wildfires were caused by a secret Jewish space laser. (Wags ridiculed the notion, by calling the laser “Mazel Tough.”)

Many of these crackpot ideas have entered the mainstream, and they’re sometimes used by scamsters to convince frightened investors to plow money into dangerous alternative assets (e.g., grossly overpriced gold coins, or fraudulent cryptocurrency platforms such as the now-bankrupt FTX).

Below, I focus on one of the most durable conspiracy theories: an international cabal of foreign adversaries will soon dethrone the U.S. dollar, ending the world dominance of decadent America. Recent news has brought these claims again to the forefront.

First, let’s do the numbers.

The main U.S. stock market indices closed higher Monday, after a losing week. The indices extended their gains on Tuesday and closed in the green again, as follows:

• DJIA: +0.93%
• S&P 500: +0.67%
• NASDAQ: +0.55%
• Russell 2000: +0.96%

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for June is due Wednesday, and the producer price index (PPI) for that month is due Thursday. The consensus calls for a continuing decline in both the CPI and PPI.

If inflation does indeed show further deceleration, the Federal Reserve would get more leeway to ease up on tightening at its next meeting July 25-26.

The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming…

Now, about the supposedly beleaguered U.S. dollar. RT reported last week that the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are poised to unveil a new trading currency backed by gold which will be discussed at the August leaders’ summit.

The Russian news outlet cited a tweet posted last Monday by the Russian Embassy in Kenya that stated: “The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold. More and more countries recently express desire [sic] to join BRICS.”

See the following tweet:

I think the importance of this event is vastly overstated. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it best on July 8, at a Beijing press conference while she was visiting China’s leaders:

“I just want to reiterate what I’ve said in the past, which is I think the United States can rest assured that the dollar is going to play the dominant role in facilitating international transactions and serving as a reserve currency in the years ahead. I don’t see that role being threatened by any development including the one that you’ve mentioned [BRICS common currency].”

Yellen’s argument, though, hasn’t stopped some of my brethren in the analyst community from darkly warning that the greenback is about to get dethroned, in part as a means for Russia to evade sanctions due to the Ukraine war.

But the hype about “de-dollarization” isn’t new, and it’s still overwrought.

A new report released June 23 by the Fed examines the myriad manifestations of the dollar’s dominance and asserts that this dominance has “remained stable over the past 20 years” and that “diminution of the dollar’s status seems unlikely in the near term.”

The Fed reported that the dollar is used in one side in seven out of eight foreign exchange transactions.

The U.S. dollar is the default denominator in world trade and the prime repository for the foreign reserves of the world’s central banks. This reserve status is based on the size and strength of the U.S. economy and the dominance of America’s financial markets.

The world’s most valuable commodity, crude oil, is quoted in U.S. dollars. Countries that import oil pay for it with dollars; those that export the oil receive payment in dollars.

To be sure, the dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves has fallen incrementally over the past two decades, from 71% in 2000 to 58% in 2022. However, this decline is largely due to diversification into smaller currencies such as Canadian and Australian dollars, rather than a transition to dollar alternatives issued by America’s adversaries.

What’s more, the share of U.S. dollars in foreign exchange transactions remains at 88%. The greenback continues to play a pivotal role in private business transactions.

Russia perceives the U.S. dollar as a geopolitical weapon, especially since the U.S. government excluded the country from the use of the dollar to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Tesla (NSDQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has decried the “weaponization” of the U.S. dollar, but when he’s not busy destroying Twitter and spouting absurd conspiracy theories, Musk is in the habit of channeling pro-Russian talking points.

It’s worth nothing that aside from the dollar, the most widely used currencies in foreign reserves and trade are largely held by Western democracies that are U.S. allies, and which back sanctions against Russia.

WATCH THIS VIDEO: Never Bet Against America

For decades, the doomsters have been wringing their hands over the supposed demise of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. But overthrowing the dollar won’t be easy.

After soaring in value and reaching parity with the euro in 2022, the U.S. dollar has weakened modestly year to date, but has stabilized in recent months. The U.S. dollar hovers near 20-year highs, as geopolitical turmoil strengthens the greenback’s safe haven appeal.

Another reason for the dollar’s elevated value is the Fed’s hawkish monetary policy, as the central bank hikes interest rates more aggressively than most of its global counterparts. As rates rise, so do U.S. Treasury yields, attracting investors who seek high yields.

The dollar has retained its status as the globe’s reserve currency because, despite threats from China and Russia to the contrary, no viable alternative has arisen. It’s also worth noting that China is currently struggling with a serious debt problem and its economy is currently weakening.

So, when you’re making investment decisions, tune out the folks who wear tin foil hats. Stick to the technical and fundamental indicators, which I regularly review in my Mind Over Markets column.

If you still want to mitigate market risk, proceed logically…by heeding the advice of the seasoned experts at Investing Daily. Which brings me to my colleague Jim Pearce.

Jim Pearce is the chief investment strategist of our flagship publication, Personal Finance. Jim has found the optimal way to cash in on the artificial intelligence (AI) super-boom.

Jim’s AI investment is an obscure “picks-and-shovels” play that you won’t hear about on CNBC. Want to learn more? Click here.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.

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