Marijuana Blitzkrieg! Germany Marches Closer to Pot Reform
My 92-year-old mother Maria grew up in Germany under Hitler’s regime. Over the years, she has shared her wartime experiences with our family, but she occasionally shows a sense of humor about her painful past.
I mentioned to her yesterday that Germany just took a major step toward legalizing recreational marijuana. My mom declared, in her German accent and with a mischievous smile: “Deutschland’s cannabis market will first dominate Europe, and then zee world!”
Actually, that’s no joke.
Germany already is the economic growth engine of Europe. Germany also is the Continent’s biggest market for marijuana. If the legalization bill approved Wednesday by the German cabinet is enacted into law, the country will become the biggest marijuana market on the planet.
Medical cannabis has been legal in Germany since 2017; recreational pot remains illegal, but as I explain below, that’s about to change.
Even though recreational pot is banned in Germany, the country already is leading the European cannabis market in terms of size and growth. According to market research firm Prohibition Partners, over a million German patients will have access to medical cannabis by 2024, and the German medical market alone will be worth 7.7 billion euros by 2028.
Black market sales are a problem in Germany and around the world, a fact that’s providing impetus for the legalization movement among U.S. states and various countries. Black market cannabis tends to be cheaper, because it evades taxes and regulation. Illicit weed is less safe for consumption and it attracts a criminal element that’s prone to violence.
The research firm New Frontier Data recently examined the growth of illicit marijuana sales in Germany as a case study of the world’s growing black market for the substance. The following chart shows the projected growth of Germany’s illicit cannabis market, if full federal legalization doesn’t occur:
Germans account for 17% of total European marijuana demand, and 3% of global demand. Those are disproportionately high percentages, and they’re on track to expand. Germany is the second most populous country in Europe, after Russia. Germany also is Europe’s richest country, with the highest gross domestic product in the euro zone.
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On Wednesday, the German government approved legislation that would allow adults to purchase and possess up to 25 grams of recreational cannabis for personal consumption through nonprofit “social clubs.”
The proposed bill still must be approved by Parliament, but the avid endorsement from the three-party coalition’s cabinet was a major step toward Germany becoming the first major European country to fully legalize marijuana. And when that happens, the commercial floodgates will open.
Far-sighted cannabis companies based in the U.S. and Canada have been laying the groundwork to capitalize on European legalization, particularly in Germany. Cannabis businesses in the best position to prosper over the long haul have been building out their overseas footprints, by establishing new facilities or engaging in partnerships and mergers. For many cannabis entrepreneurs, Germany has been the destination of choice.
When Germany officially legalizes recreational marijuana, as widely expected, the share prices of these companies should soar. The investment climate favors pot companies that are global in scope.
At a news conference on Wednesday, Karl Lauterbach, Germany’s health minister, stated: “This is an important law that will represent a long-term change in drug policy.”
The legislation approved by the cabinet on Wednesday allows distribution via the establishment of licensed private cultivation associations with no more than 500 members. Members would be allowed to buy up to 25 grams on any one day, with a limit of 50 grams per month.
The German government also plans to initiate a slew of regional pilot programs that would permit the sale of marijuana through licensed specialty shops.
The proposed legislation prohibits marijuana possession for children under 18, and limits young adults ages 18 to 21 from procuring 30 grams a month from a cultivation club. Germany’s governing coalition expects the law to be enacted by the end of the year. And when that happens, Berlin will become the global cannabis capital.
Editor’s Note: As cannabis enters the mainstream around the world, some related equity investments are superb. But many others are not. You need to conduct due diligence.
That’s where my publication, Marijuana Profit Alert, comes in. By applying my proprietary screening methodologies, I pinpoint for subscribers the most attractive plays on the “green rush.” To learn more, click here.
John Persinos is the chief investment strategist of Marijuana Profit Alert.
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