Is This Crypto Bull Market Different?
By now you already know that Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a new all-time high, and as of this writing is trading well above $70,000. For the first time in my cryptocurrency investing career, Bitcoin broke above its all-time high well in advance of the halving event scheduled to take place next month.
The current upward cycle for Bitcoin has been moving at an accelerated pace compared to its preceding bull market. So, why the sudden rush, and what could this mean for Bitcoin and the broader market?
The explanation for this situation is straightforward, yet the repercussions are a bit more complicated. There is one glaring difference between this bull market and previous cycles: the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The Bitcoin ETFs have had major implications on this market in a very short amount of time. It’s no secret that many institutional players have been eyeing Bitcoin but lacked a streamlined avenue for investment. Big funds, firms, and endowments can’t just hop on Coinbase and buy Bitcoin while storing it on a hardware wallet. (Keep an eye out for a future Understanding Crypto issue on crypto wallets.)
Additionally these ETFs have been issued by some of the heaviest hitters on Wall Street, and with that comes some credibility. The name brand power of the ETF issuers has given the green light for those institutional players to take their first steps into the crypto market.
With giants like BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Fidelity, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton now offering ETFs, institutional investors have finally gained easy access to Bitcoin, a move that has unleashed a flood of capital into the crypto space.
The spot ETFs were introduced on January 11 and since then, Bitcoin has already gained 80%.
Keep in mind that Wall Street typically enters major investments gradually, with horizons spanning years, not months. This initial move pales in comparison to the potential implications these ETFs could have.
Wall Street’s cautious approach and long investment horizons suggest that we’re merely scratching the surface of their potential impact. That said, it’s already evident that the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.
As we navigate this accelerated cycle, it’s crucial to consider its potential ramifications. However, it’s important to exercise caution as well. While Bitcoin has been leading the charge, Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins have yet to exhibit extraordinary gains. While they’ve racked up big gains so far, their performance hasn’t been much different than in past cycles.
At this point, we can’t say for sure if we are truly in an accelerated cycle for the entire crypto market, but we can speculate on some potential consequences of a turbocharged bull market.
If this bull market accelerates compared to previous cycles, cryptocurrencies could reach their all-time highs quicker. However, we may also witness the peak of the market sooner. That could mean that to maximize your gains, you would need to deploy your money sooner than later to experience the big run-ups in price.
There’s a chance that this new flow of cash into the crypto market could reduce the downside volatility of the crypto market that we’ve seen in previous cycles. In each of the last few crypto bull markets, you could expect to see at least five 30%+ price corrections on the way to the peak of the bull.
Below is a chart from Rekt Capital showing the five different 30%+ pullbacks from the 2017 cycle:
Those drawdowns have typically made for great entry points and trading opportunities. However, at this juncture I’m not too sure we’ll get those opportunities in this cycle. We are already overdue for one such 30% correction but it just hasn’t come. I am waiting to see what happens between now and the Bitcoin halving to make up my mind on this theory and I’ll be sure to follow up with you all later on.
I’ll stipulate that with or without the big price corrections, I anticipate plenty of trading opportunities in this cycle. We could perhaps see significantly more opportunities than the 2020/21 market cycle.
Bitcoin ETFs allow easier access for both retail and institutional investors. This could bring in unprecedented amounts of capital. Previously, buying Bitcoin was too complex for some, but ETFs offer a familiar investment avenue. This accessibility may lead to a tidal wave of capital, boosting prices and market cap.
The influx of capital also could lead to increased liquidity and reduced volatility, as well as legitimizing Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class. However, we just don’t know the full effects that this flood of capital will have over the relatively small cryptocurrency market.
While the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has undoubtedly altered the landscape, it’s essential to approach the situation with a balanced perspective. Overall, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on this cycle could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape and propel it into uncharted territory.