A New Lease on Life for Novavax

The coronavirus pandemic isn’t over. It never will be. That’s because there is an “animal reservoir” of the COVID-19 virus that will never go away.

However, the virus can be managed to limit its lethality. Already there are several effective vaccines on the market that work quite well for most people.

The world is going to need those vaccines forever. That’s why biotechnology research lab Novavax (NSDQ: NVAX) soared in value during the past month as shown in the chart below.

On May 9, NVAX closed beneath $5. The following day the company released its fiscal 2024 first-quarter (Q1) results.

Those numbers were pretty good. Total revenue during the first quarter was $94 million this year compared to $81 million last year.

At the same time, the company cut the size of its net operating loss in half. Novavax is not yet profitable, but it appears to be heading in that direction.

That isn’t what sent its share price soaring. The same day, Novavax announced a co-exclusive licensing agreement with Sanofi (NSDQ: SNY) to commercialize its COVID-19 vaccines.

According to the press release, this arrangement “provides Novavax with cash and an equity investment totaling approximately $1.2 billion” plus royalties on vaccine sales. Prior to that announcement, Novavax had a market cap of less than $1 billion.

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In short, this deal eliminates the immediate threat of bankruptcy for Novavax. Sanofi has a market cap of $123 billion and a solid balance sheet. Effectively, it is sharing its considerable financial resources with Novavax to acquire market share.

Now that Novavax no longer has to worry about paying the bills, it can focus on producing vaccines. And with Sanofi as its partner, sales of those vaccines could escalate quickly.

Short Squeeze

This deal caught Wall Street by surprise. At the time it was announced, short interest in Novavax was around 40%.

That’s a huge number. Short interest is the percentage of shares sold short divided into the “float,” or the number of shares trading on public stock exchanges.

Last week, I explained how a short squeeze recently sent Foot Locker’s (NYSE: FL) share price soaring: “A short squeeze occurs when speculators that sold borrowed shares of a stock they did not own must buy shares of that stock later to close out their positions.”

That also appears to be the case with Novavax. A lot of speculators were betting on the company to go under, so they sold the stock short. Now, they are scrambling to limit their losses by buying the stock before its share price goes even higher.

Usually, the share price of a company that is the subject of a short squeeze will drift back down to its previous level after the short sellers have closed out their positions.

I’m not so sure that will happen this time. As a result of its arrangement with Sanofi, Novavax is a fundamentally different company than it was a month ago.

Now, the number crunchers on Wall Street are faced with the difficult task of estimating how this deal will impact sales and earnings for Novavax — potentially forever.

Long Game

Not only is COVID-19 not going away, but it has grown to be on a par with the flu. According to Sanofi, “flu and COVID-19 hospital admission rates now closely mirroring each other.”

That is a critical data point. Fortune Business Insights issued a report last month that opens with this sobering statement: “The global influenza vaccine market size is projected to grow from $8.55 billion in 2024 to $17.77 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.6% during the forecast period (2024-2032).

COVID-19 hospital admissions caught up to the flu in just four years. It is not unreasonable to assume that vaccine sales for it will grow at a faster pace than for influenza. That’s why Sanofi is playing the long game by teaming up with Novavax.

Flu vaccines have been around for a long time and are distributed worldwide. COVID-19 vaccines are relatively new and not as readily accessible in lesser-developed parts of the world.

This may be one of the few deals that is a win for everyone (except the short sellers). Novavax was rescued from the brink of bankruptcy while Sanofi instantly expanded its product line. Most importantly, a lot of people may survive their next bout with the virus thanks to this arrangement.

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