The U.S. boasts the strongest economy among developed countries, with an unemployment rate that hovers at 55-year lows. But as my sainted Greek grandmother used to say: “There’s no pleasing some people.”

The American public has shown an unyielding grumpiness about the economy. On closer examination, a more cheerful reality emerges. Inflation is cooling, the Federal Reserve is dusting off its interest rate scissors, and the U.S. economy is reaching a “normalized” stride.

This confluence of positive indicators should have investors questioning why everyone’s still sulking. Spend a few minutes watching the relentless negativity on cable news and you’ll get an inkling.

However, although opinion polls consistently reveal widespread unhappiness among the electorate, the economy is strong and the stock market is primed to extend its bull run.

My “Yia Yia” raised a family in Lynn, Massachusetts during the Great Depression. During the height of the 1930s Depression, the unemployment rate peaked at 25%. During the 1981–1982 recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8%. During the Great Recession of 2007-2008, the rate peaked at 9.5%. During the coronavirus epidemic of 2020-2021, the rate peaked at 13%.

As of June 2024, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the United States was 4.1%. And yet, I still hear politicians and their partisan shills in the media say that the U.S. jobs market is in the toilet and the economy is going to hell. It’s simply not true. But as rock poet Jim Morrison said in 1969: “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.”

Stirrings of enthusiasm on Main Street…

In some quarters, reality is breaking through and the gloom is lifting. Let’s start with small business. It’s a truism that small companies form the heart of the country’s job creation. Main Street is starting to catch up to the optimism of Wall Street.

The NFIB Small Business Index, released Tuesday, climbed to 91.5 in June, marking its highest point this year. We’re seeing a gradual recovery in small-business sentiment (see chart).

In parallel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, striking an accommodative tone but nonetheless reinforcing the need for continued positive inflation data before considering rate cuts.

Powell testified before the House on Wednesday, where he reiterated the need for the central bank to adhere to its dual mandate. There were no surprises in his remarks on Capitol Hill.

The Fed’s dual mandate, which aims to achieve both stable prices and maximum employment, requires a delicate balancing act. Powell’s testimony this week has underscored the Fed’s cautious approach.

Although inflation is showing signs of easing, the central bank remains vigilant. With consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for June expected to show a modest 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.1% year-over-year rise, the market anticipates a gradual decline in inflation.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecasted to climb by 0.2% for the month, holding steady at 3.4% annually. After experiencing higher-than-expected inflation early in the year, recent data suggests a downward trend.

The 3.4% year-over-year increase in May’s core CPI was the lowest since April 2021, hinting at easing inflationary pressures. Consequently, market expectations are now tilting towards two potential interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, possibly starting in September. However, as Powell has made clear on Capitol Hill, the Fed’s decision hinges on continued moderation in inflation.

AI mania and the stock market surge…

Meanwhile, the stock market is enjoying a boost driven by the fervor surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). Chip-maker Nvidia (NSDQ: NVDA), a leading player in the AI industry, has been a significant catalyst for this surge.

The S&P 500, buoyed by AI optimism, has seen impressive gains, with the index rising about 16% in the first half of the year. This marks the third-best start to a year since 1999. Historical data suggests that when stocks gain over 15% in the first half, they tend to perform well in the second half.

While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, this historical pattern provides a hopeful outlook for investors as they navigate the rest of 2024.

On Wednesday, the main U.S. stock market indices closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500 closing above 5,600 for the first time. The trading session finished as follows:

• DJIA: +1.09%
• S&P 500: +1.02%
• NASDAQ: +1.18%
• Russell 2000: +1.10%

My Yia Yia was no Pollyanna, but she knew the difference between real suffering and whining. Under current conditions, investors have little to whine about.

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