The Big Rotation
Just last week, the major US stock averages hit all-time highs, led by large-cap stocks, including some that had been lagging for many years. But it’s been a different story in March-April for stocks that had the biggest gains of 2013 and early this year.
This week brought more bad news for the stock market’s two most overvalued sectors, biotechnology and information technology. Worse, when the paddy wagon came, as usual it took the good stocks with the bad, to rephrase an old Wall St. aphorism in politically correct terms.
Yesterday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3.1 percent, its biggest one-day drop in nearly 2½ years. This dragged the broader market sharply lower, as investors resumed selling biotechnology stocks in general and many technology stocks. As of April 10, the Nasdaq Composite was 7 percent off its 14-year high, which was reached last month. Yet the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remain not far from their all-time record peaks, down 3 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.
There are many reasons for the decline of both the junk and the good growth stocks. First, the broad market has been long overdue for a 10 percent correction, which still hasn’t occurred.
Second, the high fliers were much more overdue for a reality check. These particularly include extremely overvalued companies in social media, the “cloud,” 3d printing, biotechnology and more.
Third, the new-issues market, which naturally has consisted primarily of info tech and biotech issues, created too much new supply that inevitably dampened investor demand for the more established companies in those sectors.
The increased importance of trading exchange-traded funds, as both a way to invest and to hedge against market declines, inevitably adds to the downward pressure in this situation. Reason: Shares of all of their components are sold, regardless of each stock’s relative merits.
Another catalyst, specific to biotech, came last month when members of Congress sent a letter to Gilead Sciences last criticizing the high price of its new blockbuster drug for hepatitis C. Overall, investors are concerned that the rising prices of new therapies are unsustainable.
With so many pundits claiming we were in a bubble, it should be good news that the excesses are being corrected. Here are five high-quality growth stocks that are now trading at more attractive prices than before:
Biogen Idec Inc. (NSDQ: BIIB) has declined 19 percent from its March high. The company’s earnings per share are projected to grow about 25 percent annually in 2014-15. The stock carries a current price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 32, based on earnings of the last 12 months.
Google Inc. Class A (NSDQ: GOOG), down 11 percent since late February, is expected to average 20 percent annual growth over the next two years. The current P/E is 25.
MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA), off 17 percent since January, should grow its EPS 18 percent or so in both 2014 and 2015, analysts say. The P/E is 27 now.
Priceline Group Inc. (NSDQ: PCLN), after a 15 percent drop in a month, now carries a 28 P/E, with EPS expected to climb 23 percent in each of the next two years.
Visa, Inc. Class A (NYSE: V) has fallen 15 percent since January. With a P/E of 26 now, it’s projected to grow 18 percent annually in 2014-15.
The $64 question now is whether these and other companies will be able to deliver those earnings numbers at a time when declining bond yields suggest worries about both economic growth and the valuations of growth companies. U.S. Treasury issues maturing in 10 years now yield just 2.63 percent.
We are now entering earnings season, when companies report their results for 2014’s first quarter. Expectations are generally low, with the S&P 500 companies currently considered likely to earn less compared with 1Q13. So investors now are playing defense, favoring utilities, consumer staples and other lower-volatility dividend stocks.
If the current market pullback proves to be limited, growth stocks and dividend stocks can then rise in tandem. If the sell-off continues, it will spread to the conservative issues too.