A Quick Gain While the Market Sinks
With geopolitical tensions, spotty second-quarter earnings and the imminent end of Fed stimulus all looming, the Dow has finally slipped into negative territory, down 1.3 percent for 2014. The S&P 500 has fared slightly better, down 3.9 percent since its slide began in earnest on July 24th, but holding on to a 3.3 percent year-to-date gain.
While the markets are clearly slipping down a wall of worry, there are new opportunities for less risk-averse investors.
Rockwood Holdings (NYSE: ROC) is a major player in the metals coating business, but it is also a leading producer of lithium, a soft silvery white metal that reacts almost instantly with water and air. Thanks to that high reactivity, lithium is used in everything from aluminum smelting and glass making to industrial strength lubrication and pharmaceuticals.
Lithium is most commonly used in the production of batteries, typically consuming about 30 percent of annual production. Lighter than alkaline batteries, lithium batteries store more energy with longer shelf and operating lives. Lithium is particularly useful in rechargeable batteries and is commonly found in cell phones and laptops.
Hybrid and electric vehicles are becoming the largest source of lithium demand, though. While the amount of lithium in laptop and cellphone batteries is measured in grams and tops out at about an ounce, the batteries used in hybrid electric vehicles typically contain about 3.5 pounds of the metal. The batteries used in electric vehicles, such as those made by Tesla Motors (NSDQ: TSLA), contain 44 pounds of the metal.
According to a study of the lithium market conducted by Roskill Information, lithium demand growth is accelerating to an average of 11 percent per year, a trend which should continue until 2025 thanks to the rise of the electric vehicle. Demand for hybrid and electric vehicles alone should grow at a compound annual rate of 27.3 percent over the next decade, taking lithium consumption up from 129,283 tons in 2011 to nearly 500,000 tons by 2025.
Unfortunately for consumers, lithium is rather scarce and expensive to produce because it is usually mixed in with other minerals and found in two forms; hard rock and brine.
Extracting lithium from hard minerals is extremely costly; it involves mining the rock, crushing it and then subjecting it to a number of chemical processes to separate the lithium from other minerals. That process typically costs at least 15 percent more than extracting lithium from brines, which involves pumping the liquid into evaporation ponds and letting the sun do the work. The salts that are left over are then processed to produce battery grade lithium, which is 99.99 percent pure.
Rockwood is the largest integrated global producer of lithium, extracting it from both hard minerals and brines. It is also the lowest-cost producer, thanks to its access to high-concentration brines in the U.S. and Chile, which help offset the cost of its mining operations in Australia.
Rockwood is attractive because it is the subject of a takeover offer from Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB). A leading specialty chemical company in its own right, Albemarle makes chemicals used the production plastics, refined petroleum products and in the production of electronic devices.
Under the terms of the transaction, each share of Rockwood stock will be exchanged for $50.65 in cash in 0.4803 of a share in Albemarle common stock. The deal has already been approved by the boards of both companies, though it is still subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
The deal values Rockwood at $6.3 billion, a 13 percent premium to the company’s value prior to the announcement. While Rockwood’s share price closed much of that gap after the announcement, the weak market since then has opened it back up to a 10 percent premium at current prices.
That’s entirely due to the market jitters since there’s no reason to expect a shareholder objection; Rockwood shareholders get a sizable premium and Albemarle shareholders get a stronger, more diversified company. Regulators also aren’t likely to voice any concerns since the deal doesn’t actually strengthen Albemarle in any of its existing markets; it simply expands its reach into ancillary ones.
Even if the deal were to be scuttled, Rockwood shareholders would be left with an attractive growth company. In the first half of this year, it has grown net sales by 4.6 percent to $716.8 million, while net income has shot up 73.3 percent to $55.8 million largely thanks to improving margins. That resulted in a 54.4 percent increase in earnings per share over the period, up from 68 cents to $1.05. Analysts forecast that full-year earnings should come in at $2.06 and grow to at least $3.00 in 2015.
With its own strong growth prospects and the potential for a quick gain within about six months, Rockwood Holdings is an attractive play under 80.