Cleaning Up the Mess
Two events have been dominating the news over the past few days — the return of market volatility and fears about the Ebola virus.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung more than 200 points each day from October 7th to October 10th, the most volatile period for the index since August 2011. Since those swings don’t seem to be driven by any particular news, it’s likely that investors were just taking some profits made in the historic bull market. That makes sense considering slowing global growth and the expectation that the Fed will boost interest rates next year.
The Ebola news is far more frightening, though that should not have a direct impact on the markets. There have been 14 confirmed cases outside of West Africa and the first known patient in the US, aside from the aid workers and doctors brought back from Africa for treatment, passed away on October 8th. In response, U.S. authorities have begun screening airline passengers from the affected region at five of America’s largest airports, hoping to catch any suspected cases upon entry to the country.
So what does market volatility and Ebola have in common? Not much, unless you’re talking about Stericycle (NSDQ: SRCL).
Stericycle is the largest provider of regulated medical waste management services, meaning it collects the medical waste from hospitals and doctor’s offices and safely disposes of it. It also offers risk management services, compliance training and has been steadily expanding internationally. It is estimated that the company controls about 16% of the $15.5 billion medical waste market.
Given the plethora of regulations concerning the disposal of medical waste, a growing number of health care providers are increasingly opting to outsource that responsibility. That’s helped fuel steady growth for Stericycle, which has seen revenues growing an average of 16.8% over the past decade. Those revenues are also extremely predictable since the company’s services are provided on a contract basis.
Another added advantage is that in good times or in bad, during a recession or a bull market, Stericycle’s revenue and earnings still grow. Bacteria and viruses have no idea if the economy is growing or not and, even if they did, I don’t think they would care. So people are always getting sick, trying to manage chronic illnesses such as diabetes or having accidents. That’s a good thing for Stericycle, since there’s always going to be medical waste.
Given how predictable its business is, Stericycle has a beta of just 0.32 compared to the S&P 500. That’s basically shorthand for every time the index moves by 1%, you can expect Stericycle’s shares to move just 0.32%. So while the S&P 500 is down by 2.6% over the past week, shares of Stericycle are actually up 0.72%.
The Ebola connection here is that last week, the US Department of Transportation granted the company a special permit, giving it the exclusive right to transport any all Ebola-related waste in Texas through the end of next month. As you’ll recall, the Ebola patient who recently died was in a Dallas hospital. While Ebola-related waste – hopefully – won’t move the needle for the company’s revenue or earnings, that fact that it is the only company currently permitted to handle it is indicative of its size and expertise.
While the company won’t report third quarter earnings for another two weeks, in the second quarter of this year revenue was up 21.7% to $640.8 million, while earnings per share rose 7% to $0.95. Analysts expect full-year revenue to come in at $4.24, year-over-year growth of 19.1%. That’s expected to slow somewhat in 2015, with the average forecast looked for a better 12% bump to $4.76, with average earnings growth of about 14.6% over the following five years.
While Ebola won’t be fueling that growth, the aging US population which requires an ever growing volume of medical care will only drive larger volumes of medical waste. At the same time, the company’s international presence, it has operations in 11 foreign countries, has grown to the point that revenue from operations outside of the US have been growing by more than 25% annually for the past several years.
Acquisitions could also help drive future growth since the US medical waste market is still highly fragmented, with a number of regional operators and some hospitals which still incinerate their own waste. As the regulatory environment becomes more complex, smaller operators will have an increasingly difficult time remaining in compliance while still turning a profit, leaving the ripe for a takeover.
A low-volatility company helping to ensure that an Ebola outbreak doesn’t happen here in the US, Stericycle is a great buy up to $135.