High-Yield Health Care
While we tend to think of the health care sector as being rather staid and defensive, the reality is that it holds a wide array of growth opportunities. Rapidly developing technologies, such as improvements in genetic sequencing, shifting consumption patterns and growing demand for all manner of health care services are expected drive annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 6% in the sector over the next five years. That spells big opportunity for both cutting edge health care companies and stalwarts alike.
Average life expectancy is projected to increase from about 72.6 years in 2012 to 73.7 years by 2017. While that might not sound like a huge gain, Deloitte Touche estimates that will bring the number of people over the age of 65 to about 560 million, or about 10% of the global population.
At the same time, the number of high income households, which the consultancy defines as earning more than $25,000 a year, is expected to jump up by 10% to more than 500 million. More than half of that income growth is expected to come from Asia, where the health care market is expected to hit a CAGR of 12.8% between now and 2018.
With the population aging even as standards of living are improving, chronic diseases are also becoming a much bigger problem. It’s such a problem, instead of wondering about the price of tea in China, the question now is how many diabetics there are in the country. The country now has more than 110 million diabetics, or 11.6% of the population, with China’s diabetes rate the highest in the world.
Research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows that about 40% of Chinese between the ages of 18 and 29 are in the verge on developing the disease. Diabetes is hardly the only chronic disease becoming more common, with rates of heart disease, kidney disease, obesity and cancer all shooting up.
Pharmaceutical companies that have or are developing drugs to address those issues are poised to grow over the next decade and on. GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), a portfolio holding in Global Income Edge, is one such company.
Well-known as one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, GlaxoSmithKline is responsible for a wide array of next-generation medicines used to treat everything from heart disease and skin disorders to HIV and cancer. It also makes a wide range of consumer products ranging from toothpaste to over-the-counter pain relievers.
You might have also recently heard about the company because of a bribery scandal in China last year, where company officials were accused of paying kickbacks to doctors and hospitals to use their products. The government there recently fined the company $500 million over the allegations, a small sum for a company with nearly $42 billion in annual revenues and $8.7 billion in cash on the balance sheet.
That bad news aside, over the past three years the company has posted astounding earnings growth even as revenues have remained relatively flat. While 3-year annual revenue growth is -2.3%, operating income has surged 22.9% as earnings per share growth has averaged 51.3%. More than a quarter of its revenues come from the emerging market regions.
While revenues have been challenged by both the bribery scandal and a key patent expiration, the company boasts a strong pipeline of dozens of new drugs in a number of treatment areas. Perhaps most interestingly given the recent Ebola scare, it is one of only a few companies working on a vaccine. It also has an incredibly strong HIV franchise, which brings in more than $2 billion in revenue annually.
Perhaps most interesting for investors, and what brought it to the attention of Richard Stavros, GIE’s Chief Investment Strategist, is the company’s dividend. While its quarterly payout can vary, particularly because of exchange rate fluctuations, GlaxoSmithKline maintains an average payout ratio of 60% of earnings. As a result, its investors have received $1.59 in dividends over the trailing year for a yield of 6.1%. Those dividends are also backed by more than $5 billion in annual free cash flow, which came in at $3.70 per share last year and has grown by 6.5% over the past five years.
That dividend should only continue growing, with GlaxoSmithKline recently agreeing to acquire Novartis’ (NYSE: NVS) vaccine business. That will beef up Glaxo’s already robust vaccine operations, while adding facilities in India and China to its operations and reducing supply costs. There is also talk that the company may spin out its HIV operations into a standalone company in the near future, unlocking substantial value for its shareholders.
GlaxoSmithKline is just one of a number of high yielding, international opportunities that you’ll find in GIE. The advisory’s Aggressive portfolio, geared towards investors with a high risk tolerance, currently sports an average yield of 9.4% while its Conservative Portfolio yields 6.5%. For a look at Richard Stavros’ other picks, check out Global Income Edge today.