Cold Weather, Hot Stock
It’s been a fairly cold winter so far, with many regions of the United States already getting socked with heavy snowfalls. That’s great news for Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII) which, in addition to designing and building off-road and all-terrain vehicles and motorcycles, has been a major manufacturer of snowmobiles for more than six decades now. It is also a major supplier of light troop vehicles to the defense establishment.
Full-year 2013 sales grew by 18% last year to $3.8 billion, largely thanks to its massive sales network of more than 1,750 dealers here in North America and more than 1,400 in more than 100 foreign countries. Here in the US, one-in-three power-sport vehicle sales in a Polaris.
One of the reason Polaris’s products are so popular is the company’s devotion to research and development (R&D). With five R&D centers, the company typically spends about 4% of its revenue on innovating new products and features. Those efforts are key because, while I have no sexist intentions here, when men buy high-end toys, they tend to want the best available. And the company’s own market research shows that about 90% of its buyers are men with incomes of about $100,000, so they can usually afford the best. That spending is a major reason why Polaris is able to offer 18 new off-road vehicle models, five new motorcycle models and more than 300 new accessories for the 2015 model year alone.
Aside from that, the company has also done an amazing job of managing its balance sheet. The company currently has a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.3 as compared to an industry average of 1.0, having paid off more than $120 million in debt so far this year. It also has about $169 million of cash on hand, though that number can fluctuate depending on its acquisition, capital investment and R&D plans.
For instance, the company spent a sizable chunk of cash building a new off-road vehicle manufacturing plant in Opole, Poland, which opened in September. Its first such facility outside of North America, the plant covers 345,000 square feet and is expected to being shipping out new vehicles in the first quarter. With manufacturing now able to be completed closer to the company’s European customer base, the plant is actually expected save company about $20 million annually in reduced labor and shipping costs. A second plant is also planned for India.
Polaris has also shown a strong dedication to creating shareholder value, recently bumping its share repurchase program up from $100 million to $200 million. It also pays a small but consistently growing dividend, averaging about 18% growth over the past five years. The company is on track to payout a total of $1.92 for 2014, resulting in a yield of about 1.2%.
Polaris also has a strong commitment to lean manufacturing principles, so while its revenue has grown an average of 8.9% yearly over the past decade, earnings per share (EPS) have shot up by 15.8%. Operating expenses are expected to fall by about 0.7% this year alone. The company expects full-year 2014 revenue to grow by about 18% to between $4.425 billion and $4.475 billion, with EPS up by as much as 23% to $6.65.
Wall Street expects earnings to come in slightly lower than that, falling closer to the midpoint of management’s guidance at $6.62, but Polaris has a strong history of surprising to the upside. Analysts forecast another strong year in 2015, with a mean estimate of 20.1% EPS growth to $7.95 with average growth of 16.2% over the next five years.
While there is some risk to owning Polaris, such as a tightening of consumer credit availability, it has historically weathered downturns fairly well. It has also been consistently expanding its geographic footprint, either by pushing into new markets itself or by acquiring companies which are already operating in new territories. Throw in the fact that management has kept costs down and maintained a solid balance sheet, nothing short of another major recession should have a huge impact. And if the winters in the Northern Hemisphere continue worsening, it might find whole new markets opening up to it.
With a solid balance sheet and steadily growing sales, Polaris Industries is a good buy up to $167.