As crude oil’s summer swoon turned into an autumn collapse, Canada’s trade balance followed a similar trajectory.

In July, the country’s trade surplus peaked at USD1.92 billion, its highest level since December 2011. In the months thereafter, that surplus steadily eroded, finally falling into deficit in October, as crude’s decline accelerated.

According to the latest data from Statistics Canada (StatCan), that deficit roughly doubled in November, to USD568.5 million. By contrast, economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the deficit to narrow by roughly one-third.

Sadly, StatCan had previously gotten our hopes up when it initially reported a modest surplus of USD89.2 million in October. That was subsequently revised to a deficit of USD294.4 million.

For context, over the trailing-year period through last year’s high in oil prices in late June, Canada’s monthly trade balance averaged a small deficit of USD48.6 million.

So while trade could hardly be characterized as robust prior to oil’s bear market, in the near term crude will certainly undermine the country’s export activity until it picks up in other sectors, such as manufacturing.

In November, Canada’s exports dropped by 3.5% month over month, with the decline in prices (down 1.9%) edging out the fall in volumes (down 1.6%).

Naturally, the resource sector was the primary culprit in this performance. According to StatCan, exports of energy products fell 7.8%, to USD8.4 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly decrease.

Crude oil and crude bitumen were the main contributors to the decline, with the category down 9.9%, to USD6.1 billion, as prices fell 6.7% while volumes dropped 3.4%. Exports of other energy products, mainly coal, fell even harder, by an astonishing 28.4%.

But energy products aren’t the only commodities enduring a challenging bear market. Key base metals such as iron ore have suffered price declines of similar magnitude, for many of the same reasons, particularly weakening demand amid anemic global growth.

StatCan says metal and non-metallic mineral products declined 8.3% in November, to USD4.4 billion. Once again, declines in price (down 6.6%) drove this performance more so than volumes (down 1.9%).

Despite these performances, total exports were still 8.4% higher than a year ago. And even exports of energy products and metal ores still showed positive year-over-year growth, at 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Of course, given the sustained declines since November, those numbers will likely turn negative soon enough.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is hoping a rise in export activity spurred by a lower exchange rate will help the country’s economy transition from its dependence on debt-burdened consumers. However, with nine of the 11 export sectors posting declines in November, there was little evidence of any momentum on the export front.

And given that the U.S. absorbs roughly three-quarters of Canada’s exports, the BoC is hoping the country will catch a major tailwind from a resurgent U.S. economy and the resulting consumer demand for Canadian products. However, exports to the U.S. fell by 2.6% month over month, to USD29 billion, though they were still 8.8% higher than a year ago.

So which sectors actually posted gains in November? StatCan reported that exports for the farm, fishing and intermediate food products and the basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products categories grew by 8.2% and 4.8%, respectively.

As we note in the forthcoming issue of Canadian Edge, one of the few positive outcomes of the crash in commodities is that it affords the BoC more time to maintain interest rates at historic lows until the economy finds its footing again.

Otherwise, the central bank would have felt pressure to start raising rates sooner rather than later, and that could have choked off nascent growth in other sectors of the economy.