Housing Drives Prices Higher
Inflation has been something of a bugbear since the Federal Reserve began its quantitative easing program in 2009, with some prognosticators calling for runaway prices on pretty much any given day since. While there have been a few notable run-ups since then, especially when it comes to food an energy, inflation missed the Fed’s 2% target for the 33rd straight month in January. But just because it isn’t there yet doesn’t mean it isn’t rising.
The headline reading on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose just 0.2% in January. That’s the lowest headline reading for inflation since October 2009 and, taken a face value, a pretty clear indication that there just isn’t much inflationary pressure in the system. But if you strip out food and energy costs, negating the plunge in oil prices, the consumer price index rose 1.6% year-over-year.
Inflation has been slow to take off mainly because this has been the slowest economic recovery in history. Median household income has lagged pre-recession levels, as it has literally taken years for millions of Americans to get back to work. When people don’t have jobs, they don’t have much money, which cuts into demand for everything.
February was the 12th straight month that the economy has gained more than 200,000 jobs, with 295,000 more workers finding positions, taking the nation’s unemployment rate down to 5.5%. That’s actually pretty close to what most economists consider “full employment,” and we’re approaching the point where the economy should really start humming.
As we come closer and closer to full employment, wages should finally start pushing higher. When there were so many displaced workers, there was little to no incentive for employers to pay more; when there’s a surfeit of workers available, many of whom are willing to do almost anything at any price, you simply hire more workers instead of increasing wages. With a shrinking labor pool, that’s not such an easy option since more employers will be competing for fewer available workers.
We’re beginning to see that effect in action. Housing costs rose 2.9% in January, largely thanks to growing demand for apartments. When you don’t have a job, you live in your parent’s basement or double- or even triple-up with friends. When you have a job, you get your own place. Rents have been rising as the national vacancy rates for apartments has fallen from 8% in the depths of the recession to only about 4% today. That isn’t likely to budge much, even as developers plan to build thousands of new rental units, thanks to the growing ranks of the employed even as mortgage standards remain relatively tight.
We’re seeing a similar effect in medical care, where costs advanced 2.3% in January. When you have a job, you’re more likely to have health insurance. More insured people been more demand for medical care, pushing costs up as supply tends to grow much more slowly than demand.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen recently testified before Congress that she is “reasonably confident” that the central bank will begin raising interest rates when inflation picks up towards its 2% goal. While that is the usual inscrutable sort of statement we expect from the Fed, which rarely commits to anything before it’s ready to act immediately, it is a shift in messaging. Until recently, Yellen was confident interest rates would remain low for the “foreseeable future.”
Apparently, the future is less foreseeable.
When the Fed starts hinting that its watching inflation more closely, it’s time to start covering your inflationary bases. We help you do just that at Personal Finance, with a whole portfolio of inflation-beating investments.
One of the best buys for now, though, is probably real estate. There’s a lot of pent up demand for housing, as I’ve already pointed out, and excess supply is quickly becoming a thing of the past.
Since housing is currently one of the biggest inflationary drivers, one of the best inflation hedges you can buy today is iShares Residential Real Estate Capped ETF (NYSE: REZ).
The exchange traded fund holds a basket of about 35 real estate investment trusts, ranging from apartment properties to self-storage facilities and health care-related properties. Its top holdings include Public Storage (NYSE: PSA), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) and Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN).
The fund is a solid play on growing demand for all sorts of real estate, while being diversified enough to minimize risk of focusing too much on one area of the country or even one particular sort of real estate. And while it has gained about 20% over the trailing year, it has recently plateaued as investors have been waiting for a surer sign of which way the economy will move.
It also yields about 3% at the moment, throwing off an income stream that is likely to grow as the sector continues heating up. It’s also quite cheap, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.48%.
If inflation is on your radar, it’s just one of the dozen or so stocks and funds we follow to help Personal Finance subscribers outrun the inflationary boogeyman.