High Yields on the High Seas
The past year has been tough on shipping businesses, with China’s economy slowing and the lingering economic woes in Europe. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks of the cost of shipping bulk commodities like coal and iron ore, hit a 30-year low in January, largely thanks to slowing demand from China, which sucks up about three-fifths of the world’s ship-delivered iron ore.
But not all shipping businesses are created equal, and some are actually faring reasonably well, even if their share prices aren’t. In fact, the global container shipping business actually got a boost from Moody’s recently, when the rating agency gave the industry a “stable” outlook despite volatile shipping and lease rates. Many industry executives are also hopeful, especially as lower oil prices have boosted disposable consumer income, a key drive of demand for manufactured goods. Maersk of Denmark, the largest operator of container ships, actually reported a record profit of $2.3 billion last year.
Richard Stavros, who heads up Global Income Edge, has one high yielding containership owner in his stable of recommendations.
Currently yielding 7.6%, Seaspan is one of the largest owners and managers of containerships, operating a fleet of 77 ships capable of carrying a more than 600,000 containers. The company has an additional 12 ships on order with deliveries stretching into 2016, adding an additional 25% of capacity, and they won’t be sitting idle on docks—all of them are committed to long-term charters. In fact, its ships have an average 5 years remaining on their current commitments.
While the container business can be volatile, those long-term charters help shield Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) from swinging market rates for charters. Container shipping contracted by 10% in 2009 because of the recession, but the industry grew at an annual rate of better than 10% between 1999 and 2008, thanks to surging global trade. The industry largely rebounded by 2010, with containership demand growing at an annualized 6%.
Owning containerships is an expensive proposition, and more and more shipping companies rely on chartered ships from companies such as Seaspan to meet demand. While only 15% of containerships were chartered in the early 1990s, more than half of the containership fleet is now chartered.
Virtually every one of its ships is booked solid this year. It won’t face lower day rates for some time, with an average charter of five years remaining on most of its ships. The new ships it expects to take delivery on over the next two years are also already chartered for terms ranging from five to 10 years. As a result, Seaspan’s $0.375 quarterly dividend should be secure for at least the next few years, thanks to its predictable cash flow and high use rate.
Given Seaspan’s strong market position, it should continue to win new charters because it has easier access to capital than many of its competitors do. It is able to quickly begin construction on ships when needed. It recently entered into agreements with Maresk Lines to build four new 10,000-container vessels and extended the charters on five others. Another shipping line, Yang Ming, confirmed that Seaspan was chosen to build and manage 15 new vessels for the company on 10-year charters.
Seaspan is uniquely positioned to aggressively expand its fleet as container trade demand is expected to grow by 8% annually over the next few years. Even if the global slowdown were to worsen and earnings growth were to slow, its dividend should be secure given the long-term charters its ships operate on.
Analysts aren’t too concerned about that possibility, though, forecasting earnings growth of more than 50% this year, largely thanks to fleet growth. If that forecast proves true, Seaspan will be hiking its dividend sooner rather than later, as it consistently returns better than 50% of its earnings to investors in the form of dividends.
Seaspan is just one of the high yielding stocks that Richard tracks in Global Income Edge, along with you’ll also find a European bank stock which he expects to more than double, even as it yields almost 4%. Since the European Central Bank recently began handing out money to the region’s banks, just like we did here the US, that upside estimate might just prove pretty conservative.