China Joins the Stimulus Party
It looks like central bank stimulus isn’t restricted to countries teetering on the brink of deflation. On April 19th China’s central bank announced that it would reduce the level of cash a commercial bank must hold as reserves by a full percentage point in hopes of stimulating more lending activity. Banks that make agricultural loans would get an additional reduction, encouraging more investment in food production.
There is no denying that a slowdown is occurring in China’s once vaunted economy, which recently reported its worst quarterly GDP increase in six years. But that still amounted to a 7% growth rate, far higher than that of any other developed nation. By way of comparison, the U.S. economy is growing by less than half that amount, and Europe’s economy is hardly growing at all.
You might think the Chinese government would be thrilled with that kind of absolute growth rate, but like a lot of other things it’s all relative. Its 7.4% growth rate for 2014 was its worst since 1990, falling short of an expectation level that has long since been factored into spending budgets and tax receipt assumptions.
The unique challenge for China is to transition its huge economy – second largest in the world only to the United States – from manufacturing to one based more heavily on consumer spending. But long held cultural mores are slow to change, with thrift being a revered trait in Chinese society. While Americans have long been enthusiastic proponents of spending and borrowing, those traits are viewed as self-indulgent and reckless in other parts of the world.
The good news is China’s government is notoriously strict when it comes to economic policy, and its people have been equally disciplined in toeing the line. For that reason it is unlikely China will let its economy come dangerously close to deflation such as has already occurred in the United States and Europe. Instead, it will nip this problem in the bud before it requires more draconian measures.