Sweet and Sour Power
For better or worse, China has become a linchpin in the global economy. With a population of nearly 1.4 billion, China’s economy is now the second-largest in the world and is responsible for nearly half of the world’s gross domestic product growth. While the saying used to be, “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches cold,” now the world seems to catch pneumonia if China even thinks it has the sniffles.
Given that shifting paradigm, it should come as little surprise that economy watchers pay close attention to China and global markets rise and fall on the latest data point from the Forbidden Kingdom. Given the country’s voracious demand for commodities, solid industrial production data can send iron or aluminum prices soaring. Weak housing data can fell timber prices. Poor consumer spending numbers can crash home goods stocks.
Given that predisposition to volatility and the rocky data that’s come out of China for the past few quarters, a lot of investors have been leery about investing in the country. But Chief Investment Strategist Richard Stavros at Global Income Edge has found a Chinese stock that’s more sweet than sour.
Huaneng Power International is one of the lowest independent power producers in China based on production and revenue. In all, it was capable of producing 71 mostly coal-fired gigawatts of electricity last year, mostly in China’s highly developed southern and coastal regions.
As the U.S. has implemented new environmental rules reducing emissions, coal prices have been in the pits recently. And as China’s economic growth has slowed, so too has the country’s demand for coal and electricity consumption has slumped. China’s consumption of electricity from coal-fired power stations drifted down by about 10% in the first quarter of this year, with total consumption down as work has slowed in Chinese factories.
At first blush that would seem to be bad news for Huaneng Power (NYSE: HNP), especially as revenue at the Chinese ute was down by more than 6% in the latest period to $20.2 billion. However, coal prices that were off by 8% actually led to profits that were nearly 8% higher year-over-year thanks to wider margins. Without some one-time expenses, profits at the power producer would have been 20% higher, even with the headwind of China’s price-controlled coal market.
The company’s stock price is also surprisingly staid, with a beta of just 0.29 relative to the S&P 500. That means for every 1% move in the index, Huaneng Power’s shares typically move just 0.29%. Not bad considering the swings we’ve seen in the market over the past few months. Throw in a yield of 4.4% and you have a low-volatility, high-income stock appropriate for investors of almost any risk tolerance.
The ute also has one of the highest returns on equity of any large-cap electric utility stocks in the world at 33.3%, meaning that management has made extremely good use of its investor’s money.
There’s also potential upside to the shares as Chinese manufacturing activity is showing signs of reviving. The manufacturing purchasing managers index, an important measure of Chinese factory activity, remained unchanged from March last month at 50.1, up from 49.9 in February. A diffusion index, any reading above 50 implies an uptick in activity.
Granted, that lonely 0.1% of growth isn’t a lot to get excited about, but it shows that the Chinese economy is likely stabilizing. But for an electric utility, stabilizing demand in a low-cost environment means profits should be steady to growing in the coming quarters.
At the same time, Huaneng Power is diversifying its power generation capabilities, adding hydroelectric, wind and natural gas to its mix and also has a wholly owned power company in Singapore. That diversification will help to undergird profits in the event of shifting energy policy in Beijing.
Huaneng Power International is just one example of the dozens of low volatility, high paying stocks you’ll find with Global Income Edge, with several yielding more than 9%. And if you’re one of those investors worried about investing outside of the U.S., fear not for the service covers lots of American companies as well. So if you’re a dedicated income investor or more interested in growth stocks with a dividend kicker, Global Income Edge can help give your portfolio a performance boost.