Whither the Great White Short?
Though Canada can’t seem to catch a break on the economic front, that didn’t stop foreign investors from pouring money into Canadian securities at a near-record pace during the first quarter. In fact, the inflow of foreign funds accelerated with each passing month.
According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), foreign investment in Canadian securities totaled CAD37.6 billion during the first quarter, the third-highest level on record.
Seems like these savvy investors know a good deal when they see it, especially with the sizable discount resulting from the lower exchange rate.
That could put the kibosh on the so-called “Great White Short,” talk of which has been revived in the wake of crude oil’s collapse, the resulting record trade deficit, and an “atrocious” first quarter that saw economic growth fall well below even the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dismal expectations.
Short sellers attempt to profit from bearish bets made by borrowing securities and selling them to bullish investors with the hope of being able to buy them back later at a lower price. Of course, short-selling involves significant risk, especially since the market tends to rise a majority of the time, lifting most stocks higher with it.
And while short sellers typically come from the smart-money set–hedge funds and other professional investors with the deep pockets necessary to hold onto such positions until the market proves them right–that doesn’t mean they don’t get burned on occasion.
The last time talk of the Great White Short reached a fever pitch was in 2013. At the time, it started to gain traction when famed hedge fund manager Steven Eisman, whose exploits betting against the U.S. housing market were chronicled in Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short,” cited Canada’s housing bubble as a worrisome situation for the country’s banks.
Of course, that hard landing has yet to materialize. And it’s difficult for even expert traders to find a security that acts as the perfect proxy for their sour sentiment on Canada’s economy. Nevertheless, many opted for bets against Canada’s banks, which became a crowded trade back then.
Consequently, the Great White Short has largely been a losing trade for those who’ve attempted it.
But this time around, the economic headwinds appear even greater than they were in the past, as lower crude prices have now been added to the litany of concerns about Canada’s economy.
And there was significant uncertainty during the fourth quarter, when foreign investors hit the panic button as crude’s decline accelerated into a collapse, and CAD13.8 billion of inflows in October and November were essentially offset by CAD13.5 billion in outflows during December.
More recently, StatCan reported that first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth contracted by 0.6% annualized, compared to private-sector economists’ consensus forecast of 0.3% and the BoC’s flat projection.
But the central bank expects most of the pain from the commodity crash to be front-loaded toward the beginning of the year, as the non-energy sector steps up to fill the void. In particular, the BoC sees increasing evidence that a lower exchange rate has led to a pick-up in non-energy exports.
At the same time, the U.S. absorbs about three-quarters of Canada’s exports, and as bad as Canada’s first quarter was, ours was even worse, with GDP dropping by 0.7% annualized.
But just like Canada, the U.S. economic engine is expected to start humming again in the second quarter, with a return to modest growth through year-end.
And the market is, after all, a discounting mechanism, so perhaps foreign investors, after having taken a step back in December, are now looking toward better times ahead.