A Glass Half Empty?


Depending on which stock market proxy you look at, we are more than midway to the long predicted correction that many investors have feared for the past two years. While we will have to wait and see if the current selloff turns into an all-out rout, there is just as much reason to be optimistic if you look at both sides of the economic argument.

As of Thursday both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index were off roughly 6% from their levels only one month earlier. The S&P 500 Index has held up slightly better, down only 4% over the same time. And the Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks is already down 9% from its high of two months ago, suggesting that “bigger is better” when the going gets tough.

That means we are now more than halfway to the 10% decline necessary to meet the technical definition of a correction. The stock market has clearly moved into the “risk off” mode, with more than $90 billion transferred out of equity funds and into cash over the past five weeks. That’s similar to what occurred during the run up to the “fiscal cliff” in 2012, and the “taper tantrum” of 2013.

The good news is in each of those cases the stock market leveled off and quickly rebounded, so if you are looking for reasons to remain optimistic then perhaps things will go the same way this time. But you don’t have to be much of a pessimist to find reasons to think this time may be different: the Fed is no longer pumping trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy via Quantitative Easing, the European debt crisis refuses to go away, and China’s economy may be shrinking at a faster pace than anticipated.

Last October’s “flash crash” over fears of an Ebola epidemic briefly qualified as a correction (the Nasdaq Composite Index reached the 10% loss level for less than one trading day at its peak, while the S&P bottomed out at -9.8%), but for all the wrong reasons. That was a case of unfounded panic over an unquantifiable event restricted to a very narrow geographic area.

This time the geographic area is huge; essentially the entire civilized world is affected. And the financial repercussions of global deflation are easily measurable: crude oil prices have dropped by more than 50% during the past twelve months, the U.S. dollar has appreciated in value by 15% versus the Euro during the same period of time, and China just devalued its currency by nearly 3% earlier this month to prop up its ailing economy.

Naturally, nervous investors fret over how all of this may impact multinational corporations that derive a large portion of their income from Europe. Oil producers have given up hoping that oil prices will quickly rebound above $60, and instead have gone into survival mode by slashing dividends and shelving development projects. And companies that do a lot of business in China are now being viewed through an existential prism, as if they may soon dry up and blow away.

All of that is completely understandable, and predictable given the circumstances. But those same factors can be used to search for companies that should outperform the market. While low oil prices are a negative for most energy companies, they are a positive for businesses that are net consumers of fuel. That’s one reason why the share price of PF Growth Portfolio holding Delta Air Lines (DAL) spiked more than 15% over the past two months while oil prices dropped.

A strong dollar hurts exports, but helps financial institutions that generate the majority of their income from within our borders such as PF Income Portfolio holding People’s United Financial (PBCT), a regional bank headquartered in Connecticut that has seen its share price appreciate more than 7% over the past three months while paying an annual dividend yield of 4%.

And if you’re worried about China, then avoid it by using an ETF such as PF Fund Portfolio holding Causeway International Value (CIVVX) which has only 11% of its total assets invested in mainland Asia. Despite all of the turmoil overseas it is still up 4% so far this year, better than any of the major U.S. stock market indexes.

The reality is that sometimes the glass is both half-full and half-empty, which is sometimes referred to as a “two-tier” stock market meaning there is an equal number of winners and losers. That’s where I think we are at the moment, and not on the verge of sudden slide off the cliff.

China’s economy is slowing, but still growing at a healthy clip. The European debt crisis is not over, but it appears to have been successfully contained. And low energy prices are a net benefit to our economy, leaving more money in the pockets of American consumers.

That’s not to say that current concerns over the health of the global economy are overblown; they are not. But the news is not all bad, and savvy investors will benefit from the opportunities created by shifting economic conditions. The glass is still half full; you just have to know where to drink from it.