Winners Amid the Net Neutrality Debate
As the debate rages on over net neutrality, the demand for bandwidth will continue unabated. Whether the FCC decides to side with the net neutrality advocates and treat the Internet as a utility (no paid prioritization via so-called fast lanes and no traffic blocking/throttling) or instead comes up with some type of hybrid solution, consumers will still clamor for bandwidth and broadband content of all types.
During the past five years, global IP traffic has increased fivefold, and over the next five years is expected to swell threefold, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% through 2018, according to a report from networking giant Cisco Systems (CSCO). By the end of 2016, annual global IP traffic is on track to surpass the zettabyte level (1,000 exabytes), reaching an estimated 1.6 zettabytes annually by 2018.
Increased usage of mobile devices is one big factor driving bandwidth demand. In fact, it’s estimated that by 2018 the number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly twice as high as the global population, says the Cisco report. In four years, there will be nearly three networked devices per capita, up from nearly two networked devices per capita last year.
By 2016, traffic from wireless and mobile devices is expected to exceed traffic from wired devices. About a third of all IP traffic last year originated from non-PC devices; by 2018, this figure could reach 57%, with IP traffic from tablets, smartphones and machine-to-machine modules expected to expand at a CAGR of 74%, 64% and 84%, respectively.
Content delivery networks (CDNs)—systems of servers deployed in datacenters around the world used to help speed content to end users—should be one beneficiary of this healthy broadband demand trend; it’s estimated that by 2018 CDNs will carry 55% of all Internet traffic, vs. 36% last year.
High reliability is one of the major requirements when it comes to CDNs, putting leader Akamai Technologies (AKAM)—with its more than 1,500 servers on 1,200+ networks in 90 countries—at a major competitive advantage. Akamai’s core competency is moving bits (everything from media to software) across the public Internet, so it only makes sense that the current surge of streaming content (at ever-faster speeds), particularly across mobile and social applications, is driving growth at the company.
Akamai has been performing well all year, thanks in part to strong demand in its Media Delivery unit, which handles e-commerce, video streaming, videogame downloads and software downloads. After rising 23% in Q1 and 26% in Q2, Akamai’s Q3 revenue growth came in at 26%. The 2014 consensus revenue estimate of $1.96 billion indicates growth of nearly 24%.
On the content side, the YouTube unit of Google (GOOGL) is one of the major beneficiaries of increased online video viewing and the concurrent shift of more advertising dollars to online options from TV and print media. Online video ad spending next year is expected to reach $14.5 billion (up from $8.3 billion last year), and hit $22.6 billion in 2017, according to Magna Global and Nomura Securities.
Large national advertisers such as General Motors, McDonald’s and Procter & Gamble are constantly on the lookout for premium video inventory; they all want more reasons to shift a greater number of their ads to where the younger demographics are these days. YouTube’s share of worldwide video ad revenue in 2017 could reach 31% (representing revenue of $8.79 billion), vs. 11% last year.
YouTube has really benefited from the rise of multi-channel networks (MCNs)—groups of channels showing various forms of similar content. These MCNs help content creators when it comes to funding, production, programming and promotion. With backing from an MCN, a content creator can offer higher quality programming, which translates into more viewers and greater interest from brand advertisers.
A recent survey of 1,000 adults conducted by YuMe (YUME), a provider of digital video brand advertising solutions, revealed that more than 60% of the respondents said they view Web videos on a tablet and 54% use a smartphone, while 44% (and greater than 50% for Millennials) watch on a gaming console.
According to research presented by YuMe, a sample advertiser with a TV ad campaign of $5 million could increase the reach by 27% by shifting just 10% of the budget over to video ads targeted across various devices. The 2014 consensus revenue estimate for YuMe of $178.7 million indicates growth of just over 18%.
Last year, more than 2,000 brands (including 67% of the AdAge 100) planned and bought ads on the TubeMogul (TUBE) digital video ad platform, using either Platform Direct (representing 34% of total revenue), a self-serve model, or Platform Services (66% of revenue), which allows advertisers to specify campaign objectives to be executed by TubeMogul on their behalf.
Since TubeMogul’s Platform Direct business has much higher margins (gross margin of 95%, vs. 51% for Platform Services), the goal is to shift more customers over to the self-serve model, which provides the company with a fee based on a percentage of the media spend.
In 2013, total ad spending on the TubeMogul platform rose 108% to $111.9 million, including Platform Direct spend of $74 million (66% of the total), which jumped 196% year over year. The company last year had 208 total Platform Direct customers, a sharp increase from 86 in 2012 and just 25 in 2011.
In Q3, TubeMogul reported revenue growth of 112%, driven by growth of 144% in total spend on the platform. For 2014, total spend is expected to come in at $242 million to $244 million, representing growth of 117% at the midpoint. TubeMogul’s most recent 2014 revenue guidance of $109 million to $111 million (growth of 92% at the midpoint) came in above the consensus estimate of $101.6 million.
Net neutrality or not, one thing that won’t be seeing any growth slowdown anytime soon is online shopping. Founded in 2001, ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), provides cloud-based solutions deployed by retailers and manufacturers to integrate, manage and optimize their merchandise sales across various online channels.
Organizations use the ChannelAdvisor platform to do everything from manage their product listings and check inventory availability to optimize price changes and select the best search terms across multiple comparison-shopping sites, e-commerce marketplaces and search engines. The company supports roughly 150 shopping engines, 35 marketplaces worldwide and all of the major search engines.
According to CEO and cofounder Scot Wingo, customers usually come to ChannelAdvisor with an acute need to solve a specific pain point across their e-commerce businesses. The goal for customers is always to automate and expand online, then optimize return on investment across the various channels.
ChannelAdvisor uses a gross merchandise value (GMV) model, so subscription fees are structured to include both a fixed charge and a variable component, allowing the company to participate in a share of its customers’ GMV processed on the platform. Last year, GMV processed on the company’s platform rose 26% to $4.4 billion and variable subscription fees accounted for 33% of total revenue.
In Q3, ChannelAdvisor’s revenue rose 26% to $21 million, beating the consensus estimate. For 2014, the consensus revenue estimate of $86.8 million represents growth of 27.7%, while the 2015 consensus of $111.3 million indicates acceleration to growth of 28.2%.