Next Wave Portfolio—First Quarter Earnings Roundup
Now that first quarter earnings season is mostly completed, here is an update on some of the Next Wave Portfolio holdings:
Paycom Software (PAYC)—With the stock last week seeing a sharp increase in volatility, I am raising the stop loss to $33.50. In case the shares have hit a short-term peak, I want to lock in the substantial profit on this position on any further weakness.
After the stock on Thursday surged to a new all-time high of $39.75, Paycom announced a secondary offering of 8 million shares by venture capital firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe. (Paycom did not receive any of the proceeds from the secondary.) The deal, priced Friday morning at $36.25 a share, caused a 10% sell-off for the session, as some investors were concerned about the VC firm unloading its holdings at these levels. It would be a negative sign if buyers do not step back in after the significant pullback.
The fundamentals at Paycom remain solid, with first quarter revenue rising 49% to $55.2 million, above the consensus estimate of $49.6 million and the high end of the guidance range of $49 million to $50 million. Per-share earnings of 12 cents topped the consensus by four cents. For the second quarter, Paycom sees revenue of $45 million to $46 million, above the consensus estimate of $44.6 million. The company’s upwardly revised 2015 revenue guidance range of $203 million to $205 million (from $194 million to $196 million previously) represents year over year growth of 35% at the midpoint.
Nice Systems (NICE)—The stock last week hit a new all-time high at $66.99. At recent prices, the forward P/E ratio of 20.8 (1.8 times the expected 2015 EPS growth rate) is up significantly from 16.1 at the beginning of this year. I am raising the stop loss to $60 in order to protect the gain on this position in case of a near-term correction.
In the first quarter, Nice Systems revenue grew 7% to $246 million, above the consensus estimate of $243.9 million. Per-share earnings of 72 cents beat the consensus by three cents. For the second quarter, the midpoint of the revenue guidance range of $249 million to $257 million was in line with the consensus estimate of $253 million, while the midpoint of EPS guidance of 67 cents to 73 cents topped the consensus by two cents.
Varonis Systems (VRNS)—The stock sold off earlier this month after the company lowered 2015 revenue guidance by $6 million, reducing the growth outlook for the year to a range of 22% to 25% from 28% to 31% previously. Like many small companies often do a few quarters after going public, Varonis stumbled on execution issues. But the company’s underlying growth story of securing unstructured data within the network firewall remains intact.
In the first quarter, revenue rose 32% to $23 million, coming in just shy of the consensus estimate of $23.1 million. The company added 189 new customers, vs. 158 adds in the year-ago quarter. About 64% of license and first-year maintenance revenue came from new customers. The company now has about 3,500 total accounts. An expanding customer base is a big positive for Varonis because the company prefers to do volume business and not rely on large deals from a limited number of accounts to make each quarter’s numbers.Varonis in the March quarter struggled to close some deals in the EMEA region (accounting for 34% of revenue) and saw a significant deterioration in business in Russia caused by that country’s economic woes. Management warned that it would take a few quarters to get the EMEA business back in shape, as new middle management is being brought in to rebuild the deal pipeline. While first quarter revenue in the EMEA region still managed to gain 15%, that was a sharp deceleration from 37% growth in the fourth quarter.
On the positive front, Varonis’ U.S. business (57% of revenue) continues to perform well, with revenue in the latest quarter up 44%, acceleration from 26% growth in the fourth quarter. Revenue from the Rest of World region (8% of total revenue) advanced 31%.
Nimble Storage (NMBL)—The company is scheduled to report results for the fiscal first quarter (ended April) on May 26. The consensus revenue estimate of $69.6 million (within the guidance range of $68 million to $70 million) represents growth of 49.5%. For the year, analysts on average look for Nimble to deliver top-line growth of 44.6%.
Nimble continues to build out its sales management team, earlier this month naming Denis Murphy as VP of worldwide sales. Prior to joining Nimble, Murphy, who has 25 years of sales experience, served in executive sales leadership positions at Nicira (now owned by VMware) and Riverbed Technology.
Since hitting a 52-week low of $20.82 at the end of March, Nimble shares have rebounded 20%. During the first quarter, several large money managers used the weakness in the stock as an opportunity to add to positions. Fidelity boosted its stake by 58%, purchasing 2.92 million shares; the mutual fund giant is now Nimble’s top institutional holder, with 7.89 million shares. Wellington Management in the first quarter increased its stake by 38% to 6.65 million shares, while T. Rowe Price opened a new position of 1.47 million shares.