A year ago, I published My 5 Predictions for 2018. Now that we have the benefit of hindsight, let’s see how I did.

1. The price of oil will rise above $70 a barrel. Most energy analysts are pegging $60 – $65/bbl as the likely range for oil prices next year. But I believe as long as Saudi Arabia intends to sell a 5% stake in its state-owned oil business, the kingdom will do everything in its power to drive up oil prices just before the deal goes public.

Correct. The price of oil crossed above $70/bbl in May, cresting at $76.90 on October 3. However, Saudi Arabia canceled the Aramco initial public offering (IPO) at about the same time. Since then, oil prices have plunged, ending the year near $45.

2. Amazon’s (NSDQ: AMZN) share price will drop below $900. That may not seem like a bold statement since it was only eight months ago that AMZN traded above $900 for the first time. But since then it has risen above $1,100, meaning if my prediction comes true, AMZN is in for a 20% drop in 2018.

Incorrect. Although Amazon fell hard during the fourth quarter, its share price never dropped below where it began the year. Even after its recent drop, AMZN closed the year with a gain of 24%, so I was way off on this one.

3. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the Fed Funds rate above 2.5%. The current “dot plot” for 2018 shows a median estimate of 2.125% as the target for the Fed Funds rate. However, a tightening job market and rising commodity prices should push the Consumer Price Index (CPI) higher than expected by next summer. If that happens, the bond market could be in for its worst year in a very long time.

Incorrect, but just barely. The FOMC raised the Fed Funds rate to 2.5%, far above the dot plot prediction of 2.125% from a year ago. And if President Trump hadn’t jawboned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell so hard over the past three months, he may have pushed it up even further.

4. The Price of Bitcoin (BTC) will drop by more than 50%. Assuming this hasn’t already happened by the end of this month, Bitcoin will crash in 2018 due to a major security breach setting off a selling panic. Given its meteoric rise, a drop of 90% isn’t out of the question, since that would put it back to where it was only seven months ago.

Correct, and then some. Coincidentally, the date this prediction was published was within two days of Bitcoin’s all-time high price of $19,870. Just two weeks later, Bitcoin had already fallen 30% and opened 2018 at a price of $13,850. At the end of the year, Bitcoin closed at $3,747 for a decline of 270% during 2018.

5. The S&P 500 will end the year with a loss. If I’m right about the first three predictions, then this one almost has to happen. Rising oil prices are good for the energy sector but bad for the overall economy. Accelerating inflation combined with a cratering bond market would push interest rates considerably higher, making future earnings less valuable. The net effect would be discounted stock prices that are currently priced for perfection.

Correct. As measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY), the index lost 6.7% in 2018. That was the first negative year for the index (including dividends) since 2008. That brought to a close an historic run of nine consecutive positive years for the index, during which time it gained more than 200%.

After making those predictions I reminded readers, “please don’t forget that three out of five ain’t bad!” And that’s exactly what happened. I nailed three of my predictions, barely missed on one and was dead wrong on another.

As I stated at the onset of that article, “Making predictions is often referred to as a fool’s errand since the future seldom unfolds as we expect.” Nevertheless, next week in this space I’ll take another whack at it and reveal my five predictions for 2019.

Happy New Year!