Investor Q&A: Are You Smarter Than a Goldfish?
Ever notice how goldfish dart around in a bowl, easily distracted by any stimulus? Biologists say that the average attention span of a goldfish is nine seconds.
For the average person nowadays, it’s eight seconds. That’s the conclusion of a recent scientific study.
So if you’re still reading this article, I congratulate you.
In today’s digital era of instant gratification, every human impulse is fiber-optically connected. Consumers want what they want, and they want it now. They expect a gigabyte in a nanosecond.
Which is why I enjoy getting your letters. In an impatient era such as ours, we tend to forget that letter writing once played an important role in people’s lives.
To be sure, letters to the Investing Daily mailbag aren’t written with quill pens on parchment paper, with harpsichord music playing in the background. Nonetheless, I still appreciate the time and effort that readers make in reaching out. Let’s see what’s on your minds this week.
Trade war damage…
In response to my July 16 article, “China: Rising Threat or Paper Tiger?” a reader wrote:
“I always enjoy reading your column, even if time is tight and I have to skim through to catch the exciting conclusion at the end.
Your position on China as a paper tiger is interesting and I agree with most of it. I live and work in Bangladesh, and it is clear that the government is depending heavily on low cost labor to attract companies. They are not doing very many other things to woo foreign investors, and like Angola (where I used to work), it is tremendously difficult to start a business here.
I see a different political agenda on the trade wars issue, though. It is possible that Trump is going to try timing a tariff resolution so that he can take advantage of Bill Clinton’s famous line, ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’
Clearly the trade wars have created an unsteady business environment, and economies in the U.S., China, and the world are being stymied. Resolving — or at least entering into a long-term truce (say electioneering season give or take a month or two on either end) — the trade wars can make economies improve long enough to get past Nov. 2 to support a re-election campaign.
The question is whether Trump has the luck and the savvy to hit the timing right, while avoiding doing so much damage to markets that we enter into a global recession that cannot recover with a trade truce. And a truce depends on the other side, too. I don’t think we can predict how China will play its cards.
Trump is brash and reckless, and he is as likely to break the world economy as fix it. Either way, the next 16 months are going to be a bizarre roller coaster ride with high-stakes tactics trying to bolster or topple global economies for political objectives. I don’t think the gloves are coming off in this fight. That’s because there are no gloves and this is going to be an all-out, bare-fisted brawl. Investors should beware the dangers, and be aware of the opportunities.” — C.R.
You may be right about Trump’s real intentions on trade policy but as you note, leaders can’t just suddenly stop a trade war with precise timing. History shows that once in place, tariffs are difficult to reverse because companies and countries have adjusted their supply chains and processes accordingly. As the trade war drags on, the damage will get worse and more entrenched.
Late-night liars…
“You often advise us that the first rule of responsible financial management is to pare down our debt. I have more debt than I’d like and I see these ads on television in which companies offer to help people get a handle on their debt. Are they reputable?” — Sally R.
In a word, no. These scams are all the rage on late-night television. The ad usually starts with a montage of average people, tormented by too much debt. A distinguished-looking fellow in a suit (often a washed-up former congressman) suddenly appears and in resonant tones, promises to slash your debt by dramatic amounts. All you need to do is call the 1-800 number on your screen and salvation from debt is yours.
Here’s the reality: Debt management companies solely exist to pick your pocket. They charge sky-high fees and they don’t eliminate your debt, they merely repackage and consolidate it. And at the end of the day, you still have the same debt — but now, on top of your debt, you’ve just spent a large fee to a company that merely played paper games with it.
The same applies to companies that promise to help you escape your responsibilities from the IRS. These tax scamsters start to come out of the woodwork during tax season. Slash your overdue taxes by huge percentages, simply by calling that 1-800 number? It can’t be done.
Liquid profits…
“I’ve noticed that some OPEC countries, particularly the Saudis, are trying to diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on oil revenue. Do you see any investment opportunities in this trend?” — Lenny K.
Let’s focus on OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia. Among the desert kingdom’s attempts to modernize its oil-dependent economy is a huge investment in water purification, production, storage, and distribution.
One of the surest ways to make money in a turbulent world is to invest in unstoppable trends that are transforming societies and economies. When a powerful oil-dependent nation such as Saudi Arabia embraces the water industry, well, it should tell you something. The time to get in on this trend is now, before the rest of the investment herd figures it out.
Driving the need for clean water is another inexorable trend: climate change. Whether you think rising global temperatures are human caused or not makes no difference. The overwhelming scientific consensus is that it’s real and getting worse.
The Social Security conundrum…
In my July 1 article, “Social Security: The ‘Third Rail’ No More,” I wrote the following:
Under current law, the “early retirement” age of 62 is when you can begin collecting Social Security benefits. However, I strongly advise you to wait for “full retirement” age, if possible. If you start your retirement benefits at age 62, your monthly benefit amount is reduced by about 30%.
A reader responded:
“Why shouldn’t a person of early retirement age claim Social Security right now? At age 62, I get four years of benefits and can invest them.” — James C.
Makes sense in theory, James, but you’re shouldering additional risk. You’re assuming that your investment returns would outpace the amount of additional benefits if you had waited. But what if your investments fared poorly or the stock market crashed?
Social Security is inherently conservative and for millions of risk-averse retirees, that’s the main attraction of this social safety net. Regardless, base your own decision on your particular tolerance for risk. You posit a scenario that could be suitable for savvy investors.
Nothing fishy here…
And finally, I always appreciate a pat on the back, as reflected in the following reader testimonials:
“I get a ton of financial emails every day but I wanted to let you know that I really appreciate your commentary. I think it’s spot on!” — John L.
“I greatly enjoy your daily column. You are a talented writer and excellent communicator with a focused and balanced view of the markets. It is a positive for me to see your column hit my inbox each afternoon. Thank you for the professional insights offered on a daily basis.” — Gerald D.
Thank you, gentlemen. In this era of goldfish-like attention spans, it’s gratifying to have loyal and thoughtful readers.
Questions or comments? I’m easy to reach: mailbag@investingdaily.com
John Persinos is the managing editor of Investing Daily.