“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job. It’s a depression when you lose yours.” — President Harry S. Truman

One wonders what Truman would make of politics in today’s America. “Give ’em hell, Harry” would probably have something salty to say.

There have been 17 recessions throughout U.S. history, including the Great Depression. Truman presided over an 11-month recession that began in November 1948.

Fast forward to the present day. Most analysts predict that a recession will hit within 12-18 months. When the downturn finally occurs, it’ll be more than a statistical abstraction or a political debating point. It will tangibly affect your wealth. Are you prepared?

Investors are grappling with highly uncertain conditions. But at least one thing is certain: The days of easy money are over.

This bull market isn’t dead yet, but you need to get defensive. Below, I examine five areas you should consider as protection against a recession. These investment themes offer growth but also a hedge against economic hard times.

First, let’s examine the latest economic data.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported yesterday that the consumer price index (CPI) was flat in September, the tamest inflation reading since January. The CPI climbed only 0.1% in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 1.7%. The consensus forecast was for inflation to edge up 0.1% in September and 1.8% on a year-over-year basis (see chart).

The core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) rose only 0.1% after rising 0.3% for three consecutive months. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI increased 2.4%.

Separate BLS data released Thursday revealed an unexpected decline in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended October 5. Economists had expected claims to remain unchanged. The unemployment rate hovers at 3.5%. That’s the lowest headline unemployment figure since 1969, when a guy named Richard Nixon lived in the White House.

Taken together, yesterday’s inflation and jobs data complicate matters for the Federal Reserve. Low inflation makes it easier to justify another interest rate cut this year, but a tightening labor market argues the opposite.

Most analysts expect another rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 29-30 policy meeting, but Fed members are divided. Another cut is not a sure thing, especially as Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back against President Trump’s ferocious lobbying for a reduction of interest rates to zero or below.

Inconclusive trade talks this week in Washington, DC underscore the continuing threat of the U.S. trade war to the global economy. Britain’s messy efforts to leave the European Union also pose risks to growth. You shouldn’t abandon stocks altogether but as the fourth quarter of 2019 unfolds, we could witness another blood bath in equities like the one we saw in Q4 2018.

Recession-Resistant Themes

Consider the following areas for investment in the fourth quarter and beyond. Each offers a buffer against economic cycles, combined with market-beating growth potential.

• Aerospace/Defense

The companies that make military aircraft and weapons systems always have full coffers, thanks to taxpayers like you. That makes the sector largely immune to recessions.

The U.S. defense budget represents about 40% of the total global defense budget. The U.S. comes in at number one in defense outlays, exceeding $600 billion last year. Spending is projected to remain on an upward trajectory until at least 2027 (see chart).

The Trump administration has antagonized China with protectionist trade measures. The world’s two largest economies are now engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff battle. They’re also rattling sabers. China’s defense budget will almost double within 10 years, from $123 billion in 2010 to $233 billion in 2020. Russia also is boosting defense spending and growing more aggressive around the world.

Welcome to Cold War II, a climate of perpetual hostility that justifies perpetual spending.

• Utilities

You don’t have to be an income investor to love dividend-paying stocks like utilities. Dividend-payers are time-proven vehicles for long-term wealth building, but they’re also safe harbors in turbulent weather because companies with robust and rising dividends by definition boast the strongest fundamentals.

If a company has the low debt and healthy cash flow required to throw off juicy dividends, it follows that the balance sheet is intrinsically sound enough to sustain the firm through corrections and economic downturns. Utilities also provide essential services that people need, regardless of economic ups and downs.

For our latest recommendations in the utility sector, click here for a special report.

• 5G wireless technology

As an investor, you should keep an eye on 5G (“fifth generation”) technology. The companies developing and leveraging 5G are huge money-making opportunities.

Ultra-fast 5G wireless infrastructure also is a pivotal battlefield in the trade war, which shows no sign of relenting. Trade talks this week in Washington, DC have made little progress. As the U.S. and China jockey for advantage in rolling out 5G, we’re witnessing nothing less than a fight for the future.

For details on the investment opportunities in 5G, click here for our latest white paper.

• Marijuana legalization and commercialization

The marijuana “green rush” has overtaken Wall Street, as investors pursue marijuana stocks the way frenzied gold miners descended on San Francisco in the 19^th century.

As with the gold rush of that bygone era, some green rush investors will get rich and others will go bust. But the fact remains, marijuana commercialization is one of the most exciting investment opportunities that you will witness in your lifetime.

Problem is, many marijuana investments are risky penny stocks destined to go bust. To discover the right way to invest in marijuana, click here for a free presentation.

• Real estate

Real estate stocks should be among the core holdings of any long-term portfolio. Real estate is a hard asset that tends to increase in value over the long term.

As with utilities, real estate stocks are recession-resistant plays because they fall under the purview of essential needs. There’s a finite amount of space on earth and human beings will always need land.

There’s an under-the-radar investment opportunity in real estate right now that most investors don’t know about. Last year an obscure loophole allowed a handful of regular Americans to take back over $6.6 billion of the mortgage payments they made. If you want to join in the profits, click here to get started.

Questions or comments about the looming recession? Drop me a line: mailbag@investingdaily.com

John Persinos is the managing editor of Investing Daily.