Volatility: It’s Baaaack
After a sharp three-day slide induced by trade fears, stocks rebounded Wednesday on fresh optimism for a trade deal. All it took to spark yesterday’s rally were a few vague and soothing words uttered by a White House official on CNBC.
Before the rally, stocks were in a prolonged funk over trade pessimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by as much as 400 points on Tuesday. The market’s stretch of relative calm appears over. Welcome back to the roller coaster.
The following chart shows the extreme one-month action of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), aka “fear gauge.”
As of this writing Thursday morning, the three main U.S. stock market indices were all trading in the red, on waning trade hopes. And so it goes.
Below, I’ll steer you toward investment themes that are resistant to the whims of the herd mentality. But first, let’s review the current backdrop.
Oil prices continue to exhibit volatility, prompting major producers to push for further production cuts to reduce the global glut. OPEC is meeting today and the cartel is expected to press for major curtailments in output to stabilize energy prices.
Meanwhile, the hard economic data point to hard choices ahead. The U.S. economic expansion continues but it’s losing steam.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Wednesday that its non-manufacturing activity index fell to a reading of 53.9 in November from 54.7 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector.
Manufacturing tends to get disproportionate attention from the financial media, but the services sector represents more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. America’s strength in services has offset damage from the trade war and helped keep the bull market alive.
As the chart shows, the U.S. trade deficit with China reached a record high of $419.2 billion in 2018.
However, in the services sector (which tends to generate higher-paying jobs than in manufacturing), the U.S. ran a $244 billion trade surplus last year.
It’s especially worrisome, then, that U.S. services sector activity sputtered in November, with production sinking to its lowest level in a decade.
Separately on Wednesday, the ADP National Employment report showed that private employers added only 67,000 jobs in November, the smallest monthly gain since May.
Adding to investor jitters is the prospect of additional U.S. tariffs on about $155 billion worth of imports from China. Slated to take effect December 15, the 15% tariffs would affect holiday gift items such as clothing, decorations, electronics, and sports gear.
Major retailers recently reported stellar third-quarter operating results. In addition, Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year both broke records for sales. However, the new tariffs could hurt the retail sector and snuff out chances of a Santa Claus Rally.
Read This Story: Will The Grinch Steal The Year-End Rally?
Don’t count on another interest rate cut to save the day. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its next meeting December 10-11. The Fed already has reduced interest rates by 75 basis points over a three-month period and the yield curve is no longer inverted. With stocks near all-time highs and unemployment at a 50-year low, it’s unlikely that the Fed will reduce rates next week.
Gold’s renewed luster…
Considering these conditions, now’s the time to increase your exposure to gold, the classic hedge against uncertainty.
The U.S. dollar fell yesterday against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. During the escalating trade war, the power the U.S. has to implement tariffs stems from the dollar’s status as a reserve currency.
However, China has been accumulating a vast hoard of gold. If this storehouse of the yellow metal becomes big enough, it could give China the leverage to break the greenback’s primacy.
There are signs that China seeks to promote the yuan as a national currency to rival the dollar, a development that would be bullish for gold.
Rising inflation and multiple crises at home and abroad, as well as China’s efforts to promote the yuan, should significantly boost the yellow metal over the long haul.
Adding to international instability is the massive amount of private and public debt that’s sloshing around the globe. The International Monetary Fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report reveals that non-financial corporate leverage in the U.S. is at its highest level, relative to gross domestic product (GDP), since before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
Political instability is on the rise, too. The agonies of Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, Turkey, and other nations (not to mention the Brexit mess) are probably only a taste of what’s to come. This week’s rancorous impeachment hearings in Congress underscore the dysfunction that currently besets Washington, DC. All of these trends are bullish for gold.
Signs of an imminent recession are growing. According to Ned Davis Research, the utilities, consumer staples, and telecommunications sectors have outperformed in the 12 months leading up to the start of a recession, which means they’re the smart places to be now. Click here for our list of the best utilities stocks.
The Midas touch…
You’ve doubtless heard of the “gold rush,” the 19th century phenomenon that sent hordes of miners flocking to California in search of the Midas Metal. Welcome to the marijuana “green rush.”
The legalization of marijuana represents one of your greatest chances right now to exponentially boost your wealth. An increasing number of states and localities are lifting prohibitions against pot.
Read This Story: Cannabis Nation: This Week’s Legal Roundup
We’re witnessing enormous investor excitement over a multitude of marijuana plays. Problem is, many of these plays are tiny penny stocks that generate neither earnings nor revenue. Gullible investors who indiscriminately pile into the pot sector will see their money go up in smoke.
Indeed, the entire marijuana sector has undergone a brutal shakeout in recent months, as the share prices of the weakest players swoon. But our experts can point you in the direction of the right marijuana investments. The good news is, these quality pot stocks are selling at bargain basement prices.
For our latest report on the best marijuana stocks, click here now.
John Persinos is the managing editor of Investing Daily. He also serves as the editor-in-chief of Marijuana Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com