Don’t Get Trapped in Wall Street’s Runaway Elevator

Ever been trapped in an elevator? It happened to me once, in a skyscraper in Manhattan. A half dozen of us were stuck between the 40th and 41st floors for about 20 minutes before the elevator was fixed and we started moving again. It was a nerve-wracking experience.

The market’s behavior in recent days reminds me of that incident, as well as an old Wall Street adage: The market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. That’s just a colorful way of saying that the market tends to drop faster than it rises.

Investors are getting whipsawed by volatility, which is likely to become worse as the rest of 2020 unfolds. Weakening global growth, the contentious presidential election, and the coronavirus epidemic are among the major factors roiling markets.

Below, I’ll show you a few time-proven strategies to protect your portfolio. You’ll also sleep better at night. But first, take a look at the following chart, which depicts last week’s frightening free fall:

Stocks have been posting historically severe swings, which is a sign that the bull market is unhealthy. Some advisors are saying we’re in the midst of a buying opportunity, but that’s a dicey assertion. Maybe stocks haven’t hit the ground floor yet.

Pushing on a string…

In an emergency meeting Tuesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, in an attempt to offset economic damage from the coronavirus. The U.S. central bank made the surprise move to calm markets. Instead, investors had a panic attack.

The three main U.S. stock market indices yesterday plunged on the news of a rate cut and closed deeply in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 800 points. As stocks were falling yesterday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 1% for the first time ever. By the closing bell, the yield had clawed its way above 1%.

In pre-market futures trading Wednesday morning, stocks were poised to open higher as investors drew comfort from the impressive electoral performance of former vice president Joe Biden in the “Super Tuesday” Democratic primaries.

Biden is a moderate contender for the nomination who makes the financial community more comfortable than his chief rival Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a self-avowed socialist. This lift in market sentiment, though, doesn’t outweigh the deteriorating fundamentals and probably won’t last.

To boost the economy the Fed is “pushing on a string,” a metaphor commonly used to describe the limits of monetary policy. The central bank can’t get businesses and consumers to spend if they don’t want to.

Read This Story: The Fed Cuts Rates…But Stocks Plunge Anyway

Wall Street often shows collective obtuseness, but the big boys are smart enough to know that a rate cut has no power to mitigate supply disruptions from the coronavirus. Lower rates can’t send sick workers back to work, restart quarantined factories, put products onto shelves, or get epidemic-fearing consumers onto cruise ships.

Instead of reassuring investors, yesterday’s rate cut rattled them more, because it indicated the Fed is deeply worried about growth. Powell’s announcement smelled of fear.

Prudent moves for dangerous times…

How should you trade under these extremely volatile conditions? Emphasize sectors appropriate for the late stage of economic recovery, such as utilities and health care. These sectors also enjoy insulation from overseas shocks because they provide essential services.

Health care occupies center stage right now, due to the deadly coronavirus outbreak and the rush to find a vaccine. One of the surest ways to make investment profits is to tap into unstoppable trends. Few trends boast as much momentum as global demand for health services.

Populations around the world are aging and middle classes in emerging markets are getting more affluent. It adds up to fast growing expenditures on doctors, hospitals and drugs. The need to shore up public health systems figures prominently in the news these days, providing a tailwind for health-related equities.

Also consider aerospace/defense, a recession-resistant sector that actually benefits from headline risk. As geopolitical tensions get worse, the prices of defense stocks have soared. Defense budgets around the world continue to rise at a robust pace.

Over the past three years, the benchmark SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) has gained 15.3%, compared to a gain of 9.7% for the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), as of market close March 3.

Read This Story: Fear Factor: How to Ride Out the Coronavirus Panic

Utilities, health care and aerospace/defense are proven havens during an economic downturn. Economic cycles typically last between five and eight years; the current expansion is more than 10 years old. We’re overdue for a downturn.

The big question is, will the economy execute a soft or hard landing? The slowdown in corporate earnings growth indicates that the landing could be hard.

Under current conditions, a generally appropriate portfolio allocation is 50% stocks, 25% hedges, 15% cash, and 10% bonds.

Make sure your hedges sleeve contains gold, the classic safe haven investment. In fact, my colleague Dr. Stephen Leeb has pinpointed an under-the-radar gold play that shines above the rest. This small-cap gold miner is poised to explode on the upside, but most of Wall Street hasn’t even noticed the company.

Dr. Leeb is chief investment strategist of the premium trading service, The Complete Investor. The time to invest in his gold mining play is now, before the rest of the investment herd catches on. Click here for details.

Respond to crises with methodical moves, such as increasing exposure to gold. Take the stairs. Don’t get trapped in a runaway elevator.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your comments and questions to: mailbag@investingdaily.com