Keep Calm and Carry On Investing

During the dark days of World War II, the British had an expression: “Keep Calm and Carry On.” The government put the slogan on a motivational poster. The poster was plastered throughout the country.

Here’s what I’m saying to you now: keep calm and carry on with your investing.

Yes, the stock market rout has been ugly. As of this writing Thursday morning, the blitz of bad news continues. However, markets always bounce back. (And remember, despite daunting odds, the Allies won the war.)

Below, I’ll show you how to survive a bear attack. First, let’s take an unflinching look at the market mayhem and the looming economic threats from overseas.

The bear comes out of hibernation…

Investors are confronted with the first bear market in over a decade, largely thanks to the coronavirus epidemic. As if that weren’t bad enough, China and Europe are preparing to clobber the global economy with a one-two punch.

The “black swan” event we’ve all feared has finally emerged. The World Health Organization (WHO), which is not known for hyperbole, on Wednesday officially labeled the coronavirus a global pandemic. The WHO’s announcement pummeled stocks on Wednesday. The coronavirus not only kills people; it has killed the 11-year-old bull market.

Stocks tanked on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirming a bear market for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow plunged 1,464.63 points, or 5.85%, to 23,553.53, the S&P 500 lost 140.84 points, or 4.89%, to 2,741.39 and the NASDAQ fell 392.20 points, or 4.7%, to 7,952.05.

In pre-market futures trading Thursday morning, the three main U.S. indices were poised to extend their losses and open deeply in the red. Investors realize that the epidemic poses a real and present danger (see chart).

The WHO warns that the epidemic will worsen within the U.S. and around the world. The virus has spread to at least 114 countries and killed more than 4,000 people.

The epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak is the city of Wuhan in Hubei province in China. The Chinese government’s delayed response to the initial outbreak in late December contributed to the spread of the virus. China’s economy, which already had been slowing, is paying the price.

U.S. investors need to brace themselves for economic body-blows from China and Europe.

Months before the coronavirus epidemic gathered steam, analysts were warning that China and Europe were heading toward economic slowdowns. Now the prognosis has worsened. The economic damage wreaked by COVID-19 makes a recession around the world (and on American shores) more likely.

Worse than SARS…

The closest example to the coronavirus outbreak is the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in China in the early 2000s. SARS caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries. The one-year impact on China’s economy from SARS was -1.05%.

Global stocks took a hit from SARS but quickly recovered. Over a six-month period between the reporting of the first SARS cases and the last reported case, the S&P 500 declined by 3.4% before bouncing back.

But this time around, the economic danger is far greater. According to the World Bank, China’s share of total global output in 2019 totaled about 20%, more than twice its share of 8.5% during the SARS outbreak. China accounted for 35% of total global gross domestic product growth between 2017 and 2019. That’s twice America’s share of 18% and more than four times that of the EU’s 7.9%.

What’s more, global supply chains today are far more focused on China. The coronavirus has undercut the manufacture of smartphones, microchips, electronics, automobiles, and (ironically) vaccines, to name just a few products.

U.S.-based companies are experiencing lower consumer demand, disrupted production processes, and shortages of vital equipment and spare parts. Corporate earnings and revenue projections are getting revised downward.

Europe runs a temperature…

As with China, Europe already was witnessing weaker economic growth.

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has suffered contracting manufacturing activity in recent quarters. The virus is further dampening the country’s factory orders.

This week, Italy’s government quarantined its entire nation of 60 million people. Italy is the third-largest national economy in the euro zone and the eighth largest in the world.

Italy’s economy was shaky even before the outbreak. The country’s banking sector is groaning under a mountain of bad debt, threatening to undermine the stability of Europe’s financial system.

Read This Story: The Global Debt Bomb: Tick…Tick…Tick

The euro zone, defined as the 19 nations that share the euro currency, operate with tough restrictions as to how much stimulus individual countries can implement and how much debt they can take on.

In previous downturns, the European Central Bank (ECB) has come to the rescue. In the years following the great financial crisis of 2008, the ECB drove short-term interest rates down to zero to keep money flowing through European economies. Now that Europe faces a new crisis, this monetary strategy is maxed out like a spendthrift family’s credit card.

The ECB s expected to cut rates Thursday. It will be a symbolic move, to reassure investors that Europe’s leaders aren’t asleep at the wheel. Problem is, when interest rates are at zero or below, pushing them further into negative territory typically exerts little effect.

Lower interest rates (or tax cuts, for that matter) can’t get sick employees back to work, coax people back onto cruise ships and airplanes, or fix disrupted supply chains.

The upshot: Don’t sell good stocks in a panic. If your portfolio is properly diversified, you can sit tight and ride out the storm. Stick to your long-term goals. It’s a fool’s game to try and time the bottom of a market crash, but rest assured, stocks will inevitably recover.

There’s still money to be made in this market and the team at Investing Daily will show you how. Our “dividend map” is a good place to start.

Another bear-beating move now is to tap into megatrends that will thrive regardless of market conditions. One such trend is the global implementation of 5G (“fifth generation”) wireless technology. The super-fast download speeds of 5G will accelerate the advancement of the Internet of Things and a host of other tech wonders.

We’ve put together a new presentation on investment opportunities in 5G wireless. Several 5G-related stocks are now selling at a discount. Click here for the full report. The bear is upon us, but your portfolio doesn’t have to get mauled.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Questions about bear market investing? Drop him a line: mailbag@investingdaily.com