The Day The Jobs Boom Died
When I was a boy, my Greek immigrant grandfather would describe to me the deprivations he suffered in America during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Jobs were hard to get, breadlines were common, and his son (my father) endured an austere childhood.
Now that I’m a grandfather myself, severe economic shocks are emerging on a daily basis, notably in the jobs market. Will I have grim tales of economic depression to tell my own grandkids? Probably not. And yet…we can’t put our heads in the sand. The current economic situation is alarming.
Amid the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic, you can still make money. However, you need to be even more selective than usual. In a minute, I’ll pinpoint an exciting opportunity. But first, let’s review the economic mess we now face.
It’s unclear just how bad the coronavirus-induced economic downturn will get. But one thing is clear: the decade-long jobs boom is dead.
The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) dropped a bombshell on Thursday, by revealing the extent of the coronavirus pandemic’s damage to the jobs market.
The latest U.S. labor market data showed a mind-boggling increase in initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21. The government reported that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits soared to nearly 3.3 million, the worst weekly increase ever and a number that’s literally off the charts when compared to historical figures:
A sharp rise in U.S. unemployment was expected, as businesses are shuttered and workers sent home because of the pandemic. But the actual numbers far exceeded estimates. They indicate that the worst it yet to come. Just three weeks ago, only about 200,000 people applied for jobless benefits.
The DOL’s official comments accompanying the Thursday jobs report didn’t pull any punches:
“Nearly every state providing comments cited the COVID-19 virus impacts. States continued to cite services industries broadly, particularly accommodation and food services. Additional industries heavily cited for the increases included the health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries.”
Paradoxically, the grim DOL report cheered Wall Street yesterday, because it suggests that even more stimulus is probably on the way. Stocks closed higher Thursday, to post three consecutive days of sharp gains. But in a pattern that we’ve seen play out in recent weeks, the rally was not to last.
Mr. Market’s manic-depression…
As of this writing Friday, all three major U.S. stock market indices were trading deeply in the red, snapping their three-day winning streak. By noon today, the Dow was down nearly 900 points.
Sending investor sentiment back into the doldrums were reports that the U.S. now has more coronavirus cases than any country in the world, surpassing China and Italy. Also darkening the picture: a second wave of coronavirus infections already is hitting China.
It didn’t help when questions arose Friday as to whether the stimulus bill would even pass, as lawmakers who are out of town or in local quarantine scrambled to get back to Washington for the necessary in-person vote.
Analysts expect another huge jobless claims number next Thursday, when the DOL releases its report on new claims filed this week. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to reach as high as 10% this summer, roughly equal to the highest level during the Great Recession. I doubt we’ll see 25% unemployment, the peak figure of the Great Depression, but the level expected for later this year is plenty painful enough.
Jobs are getting decimated around the world. United Nations officials reported Thursday that global job losses from the coronavirus crisis are on track to surpass the 25 million estimated just a few days ago.
Are you worried that we face a likely recession? I’ve got bad news for you: the recession already is here. At least, that’s what the bond market has been trying to tell us.
Read This Story: Bond Markets and The Danger of Crowds
Bond liquidity has been under intense pressure over the past few weeks as panicky sellers abandon riskier assets for safety.
In the U.S., manufacturing activity was declining and agriculture was facing hard times, even before the pandemic hit. First-quarter corporate earnings numbers probably will be ugly.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) stated in a recent report: “We expect declines in services consumption, manufacturing activity, and building investment to lower the level of GDP in April by nearly 10%.” JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) estimates the economy could shrink by as much as 14% in the second quarter.
Your Rx for economic pain…
During these frightening economic conditions, where should you turn? The health services sector is appealing now. The stocks of medical providers and drug makers tend to be recession resistant and their services are especially essential in a pandemic.
Read This Story: Pandemic Plays: All Eyes on Health Services
Another catalyst for growth in health services is the opioid crisis. The Centers for Disease Control reports that more than 70,000 Americans die every year from drug overdoses.
About 75% of all drug overdose deaths are caused by opioids, a class of drugs that includes prescription painkillers as well as heroin and dangerous synthetic versions like fentanyl.
But therein you’ll find an investment opportunity that transcends the coronavirus-induced economic woes mentioned above.
Doctors slashed opioid prescriptions in half last year and the federal government just announced plans to eliminate them altogether. But what’s the replacement? It could be a new, addiction-proof painkiller that’s already proven safe in human clinical trials.
In fact, this new drug could take over the $26.3 billion pain industry with zero competition, sending the drug maker’s stock through the roof. Click here for details. And in the meantime, during this global crisis, let’s all work together to ensure a safe world for our grandchildren.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Questions about crisis investing? Send your questions to: mailbag@investingdaily.com