Will April spring bring warmer investment conditions after the harshness of March? Perhaps we’ll soon start to see green shoots of growth.

In March, the S&P 500 plunged to this year’s low of 2,191.90, ending the longest bull market in history. Also last month, U.S. unemployment claims soared, the stock market crashed, and the U.S. surpassed China in the number of coronavirus deaths.

In the first three weeks of March, the S&P 500 fell 30% before bouncing back 10% in the final week of the month. In the first three months of 2020, the S&P 500 fell 20%, its worst first quarter ever and its largest quarterly loss since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted its worst first-quarter performance in history, plunging more than 23%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell more than 14% in Q1.

As April gets underway, we’re witnessing an increasing coronavirus death toll, accompanied by worsening economic damage and stock market declines. Cruel events are testing our collective capacity to endure.

Now the good news…

I can hear a collective sigh from readers. So is there any good news? It’s not my job to be a mindless cheerleader for the financial markets. I leave that to the grinning carnival barkers on CNBC. It’s my job to deal with the facts. But yes, there’s some encouraging news on which to hang your hat.

Stocks soared higher Monday as the pandemic showed signs that maybe, just maybe, it was slowing in New York City. (I doubt we’re out of the woods yet.)

In other positive news, crude oil prices surged 32% last week, as word came that Saudi Arabia and Russia might bury the hatchet on their oil price war and agree to a production cut. Last week brought continued pain for equities but substantial relief for the beleaguered energy patch (see table).

The Kremlin has since denied rumors of a production cut, but we’ll see how events pan out. The destructive Saudi-Russo oil price war benefits no one.

Read This Story: The Saudi-Russo Standoff: What it Means for You

Another bright spot is federal stimulus, both fiscal and monetary. Congress last month passed the CARE Act, a $2.2 trillion fiscal spending package that provides a lifeline to families and businesses most affected by the virus.

This spending package includes direct payments to most adult individuals of $1,200; expands unemployment insurance to four months with higher monthly payments; loosens eligibility requirements to cover a greater number of unemployed workers; and provides low-cost loans to small businesses that can be forgiven if employees are retained. The CARE Act also helps distressed states, industries and large corporations.

In addition, the Federal Reserve has implemented accommodative monetary policy and stands ready to do more.

How long will the recession last? Impossible to say. This economic downturn and bear market were triggered not by financial or economic factors, but by a deadly pathogen that’s three times as infectious as ordinary flu.

Stock markets typically peak about six months before the beginning of a recession, with markets on average declining 34% from the peak. The S&P 500 currently has fallen 25% from its record high, which jibes with historical bear-market averages.

Stocks tend to lead recessions, posting returns of 25% in the year following a market bottom and 32% in the following three years on average. As social distancing policies accelerate this spring and the economic fallout worsens, a market revival is contingent on the degree to which the virus is contained.

Read This Story: The D-Word: How Bad Will The Economy Get?

Be wary of bear market traps, which occur when investors seize on any shred of ostensible good news as an excuse to bid stocks higher. These ephemeral rallies are signs that the bear market hasn’t run its course. History shows that new bull markets are born not of unreasonable hope, but (unfortunately) of abject despair. We’ll see if Monday’s rebound has legs.

Dos and don’ts…

As we wait for this global calamity to ease, what you shouldn’t do is probably more important than what you actually do. Follow this mantra: never dump stocks in a panic.

Certain blue-chip stocks that serve as industry bellwethers have gotten clobbered in this bear market, but unless you think global capitalism will collapse (and I don’t), you should hang onto them and wait out the storm.

If you’ve been following my advice in recent months to elevate cash levels, you’re in a good position to incrementally buy shares of intrinsically sound stocks at once-in-a-lifetime prices.

Trying to time a bear market bottom is an endeavor that usually comes to tears. Keep reading Mind Over Markets, for clues as to when it looks safe to start jumping back into the fray.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how long the downturn lasts. But in the coming weeks, if COVID-19 cases start to plateau, we’ll likely witness a vibrant spring in which the economy and markets sprout new shoots of growth. Stay tuned. This season’s cruelty won’t last forever.

Questions about crisis investing? Drop me a line: mailbag@investingdaily.com

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.