I’m a big fan of boxing movies. A cliché of the genre is when the hero of our story, a prizefighter trying to redeem his life and career, seems down for the count in the final reel. Can he stagger back to his feet and regain glory?

Similar suspense surrounds the battered and bruised economy. The coming days will be pivotal in telling us whether the economy has been knocked out by the coronavirus, or whether it still has some fight left.

A happy ending is not assured. In pre-market futures trading Monday morning, the three main U.S. stock market indices were set to open sharply lower, amid growing pessimism over the economy.

Economic reports last week from the U.S., Europe and Asia were grim, as coronavirus-induced social distancing kept factories and businesses shuttered. If the global economy is to recover, it will need the help of China, the world’s growth engine. But the Middle Kingdom is grappling with severe problems of its own.

China last Friday reported that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter, marking the first time the Chinese economy has contracted since modern recordkeeping began in 1976. The city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus is thought to have originated, is a major industrial hub that only now is emerging from a 70-day lockdown.

Stimulus to the rescue…

Central banks around the world have stepped forward with considerable monetary easing. During the Great Depression of the 1930s it was called “priming the pump” and the practice still works today.

The European Central Bank initiated a $820 billion quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank of England slashed its benchmark rate to 0.1% and launched £200 billion worth of QE. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero and relaunched large-scale asset purchases.

Fiscal stimulus has been forthcoming, too. Congress last month passed the CARE Act, a $2.2 trillion spending package that provides a lifeline to families and businesses most affected by the virus. As of this writing on Monday, the White House and Congress were nearing agreement on a $450 billion package to assist small businesses and hospitals.

However, fiscal and monetary measures only go so far. The metric investors are most worried about is the rate of the pandemic’s spread. On that score, the news has been mixed.

Infections and deaths from COVID-19 are slowing in the U.S. and around the world. Also encouraging are incremental steps in several countries, including the U.S., to reopen economies. But people are still dying and there are concerns that reopening economies too soon could spark a second wave of infections.

Lasting rebound or false hope?

The three major U.S. stock benchmarks rose last week for the second consecutive week, the longest winning streak since the market topped out in February. Investors decided that the positive news about the pandemic outweighed the negative. Reports of a possible vaccine, combined with successful efforts to limit the spread of the virus, also buoyed equities. The technology-heavy NASDAQ showed particular vigor, as investors bet that tech companies would wield outsized influence in the post-pandemic world (see table).

However, if economic and financial recovery arrives, will it be sustainable? We face several daunting headwinds that can’t be offset by political cheerleading or wishful thinking.

Read This Story: The Bear Isn’t Gone…He’s Hiding

The number of new jobless claims last week in the U.S. soared for a third week in a row, with 5.5 million workers applying for unemployment insurance. In previous recessions, the number of weekly claims never exceeded 700,000. The number of laid-off and furloughed workers now hovers at a staggering 22 million, wiping out job gains since March 2009.

In the coming week, first-quarter corporate earnings reports will command the spotlight, with about 20% of S&P 500 companies posting results. The analyst consensus is for Q1 earnings to come in at a year-over-year growth rate of -10%.

Key economic data scheduled for release this week include existing home sales (Tuesday); the April preliminary Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services (Thursday); weekly jobless claims (Thursday); and consumer sentiment (Friday).

Stocks have racked up two positive weeks in a row. But historically, bear markets frequently experience sharp and brief bull phases that peter out. That’s the dynamic we witnessed during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

With so many people out of work and corporate earnings negative by double digits, it’s hard for me to remain optimistic that stocks can sustain their partial recovery. Economists are forecasting that U.S. GDP will plunge by 40% through the spring months. That’s not a recipe for a bull stock market. We’re probably facing additional sell-offs as the punch-drunk economy tries to get back on its feet.

We’ll see if the past two weeks of gains are the start of a new bull market or the last hurrah before another descent into bear territory.

In the meantime, if you’re looking for a list of high-quality stocks that provide income, growth and safety even in tough times, click here now.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com