One of the Greek market’s legendary stock traders also runs 21, a high-end restaurant in Athens that caters to those with a taste for fine food and drink–and an ear for trading tips and market talk.

This successful stockpicker-cum-restaurateur has been spot on all summer, predicting every market turn– the early rally, the correction in stocks and oil prices and the latest rebound. Last night, after a sumptuous meal, a group of us bandied about our takes on market direction and longer-term economic issues.

Our host suggested that the markets would weaken before Sept; not only do many traders expect a correction that month, but the bulls have also run off the bears–a period of balancing action is in the cards. That weakness should dissipate by October. Absent any negative surprises from the economy, Christmas should also be good to traders; the market will take some time to recognize and accept the structural problems that developed economies will face over the long term.

But that willful ignorance can only persist for so long. Our host emphasized that Western economies are on life support; the expectation that future growth will match that experienced in the 1990s is pure chimera. Economic growth will slow to a crawl, thanks to tougher regulation and excessive debt. Western protectionism could also stunt future growth.

According to our sage host, central banks have done a good job saving the global economy from a total meltdown, but there are limits to what they can do–monetary policy can only affect the real economy up to a point.

For him, arguments about W- or V-shaped recoveries are a waste of time as long as economic data continue to fluctuate. He expects a sustainable recovery that’s not as strong, and certainly not as smooth, as others envision.

Market participants should expect markets to trade within a set bound by this year’s surge; a new bull market would require strong economic fundamentals.

He identifies next summer as the real test; that’s when central banks will be compelled to raise interest rates. The relative health of the economy will determine the strength of the market–a cause for concern, especially given the US government’s lack of fiscal discipline. His final advice: “Stay alert and protect you profits.”