From East to West: A Global Perspective

The Investing Daily team is home to several experts with varying specialties, but when I need an internationalist view with an emphasis on the East, I turn to my colleague Scott Chan.

China-born Scott Chan (pictured here) is the lead analyst for Real World Investing and The Complete Investor. Educated in the United States, Scott is a multicultural person who reads and speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese Chinese. My questions for Scott are in bold.

Coronavirus cases are surging, in a “third wave” of infections in Europe and the U.S. Stocks have swooned in recent days. Do further market sell-offs await ahead, because of the continuing pandemic?

There are reasons to feel uneasy as an investor today. The coronavirus already showed that it’s not afraid of warm weather, and now as we head into flu season, the outbreak is accelerating.

Besides the human toll, more lockdowns may be necessary, which could push us into a double-dip recession. Talks in Washington for a new stimulus package are on hold until after the election.

So yes, we will experience some rough waters in weeks ahead. However, I don’t think there will be another crash like we had earlier this year. The decline will be more like a correction.

To brace for further volatility, it’s a good idea to own some gold and to have exposure to growth in the East. There are risks particular to Chinese stocks, but there’s no denying that China is a huge and fast-growing consumer market. When increasing exposure to China, stick with select mega-cap tech stocks.

Unlike the West, China and the rest of Asia have gotten a handle on the pandemic. Do you think Eastern economies are now in a position to dominate 2021 and beyond?

I am no fan of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and perhaps we can criticize them for covering up the severity of the coronavirus in the early days, but I must give them credit for containing the outbreak domestically as well as they did.

The rest of Asia, particularly East Asia, also has done a good job. Whether their success is attributable to an earlier cultural acceptance of wearing facemasks, better compliance with authorities, or even governments more willing to take draconian measures to contain the spread, they are no doubt doing far better than us in terms of battling COVID. For example, Taiwan, which my wife and I visited last year, only has about 550 confirmed cases and seven deaths out of a population of more than 23 million.

Asia’s success means that the region will indeed lead the way out of the global recession. Something in particular to watch is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, also called the “New Silk Road.”

This ambitious plan aims to link more than 60 countries, most of which are developing economies, in not only Asia, but also Africa, parts of Europe and the Americas in a massive trade network.

China has long been a top commodity consumer thanks to years of modernization and infrastructure build out, but now heightened construction activity will be spread through developing countries.

We are looking at likely many trillions of dollars to be spent on commodities for the Belt and Road Initiative over the next decade or two. That bodes well for the commodities market and commodity producers. Higher commodity prices mean higher inflation and that doesn’t benefit us in the West. But potentially high inflation ahead is another reason to invest in gold.

If the November 3 election is contested, stocks will probably crater. What steps can investors take now, to protect their portfolios?

Among the negative consequences of a contested election is the delay it would cause in stimulus package negotiations.

Watch This Video: Power, Politics and Profits

I mentioned gold earlier. For investors who don’t already own gold ETFs or gold mining stocks, it’s a good idea to buy some. The yellow metal tends to outperform when there are deflationary or inflationary forces. Gold also makes for an excellent long-term investment, not just as a short-term hedge against the market. [Editor’s Note: For our favorite gold mining stock, click here.]

The pandemic has divided the global economy into winners and losers. Which industries are benefiting the most right now and which are getting hurt the worst?

There is a reason tech stocks have actually gotten the biggest boost from the pandemic. Due to the need to socially distance and minimize person-to-person contact, perhaps permanently, the companies that provide solutions for this new way of life are sure to benefit.

These solutions range from video conferencing to remote learning to online shopping to even just gaming to pass the time at home. Tech companies are the ones who can provide such solutions.

Read This Story: The Industries Hardest Hit by COVID

The industries clobbered the worst by the pandemic include hospitality, travel and entertainment. Whether it’s hotels, airlines, restaurants, movie theaters, or sporting events and shows, they have been devastated and will take months to recover.

Among the industries that have suffered the worst during the outbreak, which ones currently provide appealing “value plays” as bets on economic recovery in 2021?

While they likely won’t have the fastest recovery among beaten-down stocks, energy stocks may have among the highest potential upside from here.

Even the biggest oil companies are booking big losses, cutting dividends, selling assets, and writing down assets. But I wouldn’t count out oil. Despite all the hype surrounding electric cars (EVs) eliminating the need for gasoline, I can’t imagine a world in which oil still doesn’t play an important role, at least not in my lifetime.

Even if EVs do proliferate, they won’t replace the entire fleet in the world, so oil will still be used for transportation. Besides gasoline, oil also has many industrial applications. If you have patience to wait, there are quality energy stocks trading at historically low prices. Crisis tends to weed out the weak and leave the strong to thrive once conditions improve.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your questions or comments to mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, follow this link.