3 Investment Trends That Defy Political Strife
As I write this article on the cold gray morning of Wednesday, November 4, the bitterly contested U.S. presidential election is going down to the wire. Whether you support Donald Trump or Joe Biden, you’re biting your nails. Maybe you’re sleep-deprived and hung over, too.
It was a different story on Tuesday. The Democrats were cheering what seemed to be a looming “blue wave” and Wall Street was happily betting on a decisive outcome. The big boys in lower Manhattan don’t necessarily prefer one political party to another; they contribute heavily to both Democrats and Republicans. What they really hate is uncertainty and they’re eager for a return to stability.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday rose 554.98 points (+2.06%), the S&P 500 climbed 58.78 points (+1.78%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite soared 202.96 points (+1.85%).
But Tuesday’s relief rally was premature. Before the opening bell Wednesday, key battleground states are too close to call and millions of ballots remain uncounted. Trump (falsely) declared himself the winner this morning and threatened to take the election to the Supreme Court. Biden said not so fast, this election isn’t over.
The agony could drag on for days. But as an investor, you should take a deep breath and prepare for the future. Below, I’ll give you advice to help alleviate your investment anxiety.
Lawyers, guns and money…
In pre-market futures trading Wednesday morning, U.S. stocks were gyrating like a roller coaster, as investors weighed fluctuating election odds. The Biden and Trump teams are unleashing their legal teams. Protestors, some of them armed, are taking to the streets. The Warren Zevon song comes to mind: Send lawyers, guns and money.
Most investment analysts have been taking a binary approach to the election. They divide the landscape into either “Trump plays” or “Biden plays.” That’s too simplistic.
With control of the White House and Senate still hanging in the balance and court challenges underway, investors should stay focused on the long game. Keep your powder dry and get ready to invest your cash reserves into politically agnostic plays. I’m referring to trends that will unfold in 2021, regardless of who sits at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. Here’s a roundup of three salient trends that enjoy inexorable momentum.
1) Marijuana legalization. Four states Tuesday became the latest in the U.S. to legalize marijuana for both recreational and medical use.
A majority of New Jersey and Arizona voters voted yes on ballot measures that made recreational marijuana legal. In South Dakota, voters passed one of two marijuana legalization ballot measures, which legalized medical use. Mississippi voters approved an initiative to establish a medical marijuana program for patients with debilitating conditions.
The marijuana industry will continue to benefit from state-level legalization, with the lifting of the federal prohibition only a matter of time. The new marijuana laws that passed on Tuesday will result in lucrative new markets for cannabusinesses.
According to a report released October 19 by marijuana research firm New Frontier Data:
“Nationally, the total number of patients treating ailments with legal medical cannabis has surpassed 3 million, a number projected to increase as newly legal medical markets become operational. An estimated 44.5 million American adults will consume cannabis at least once in 2020 across both legal and unregulated markets. That total is projected to grow by roughly 4% per year over the next six years, reaching an estimated 52.3 million consumers by 2025.”
Take a look at the following chart:
Tuesday was politically successful for marijuana advocates as well as investors. Marijuana equities have been rallying in recent weeks and their rise should continue into next year.
In my capacity as editor-in-chief of Marijuana Investing Daily, I’ve scoured the cannabis industry for the best pot stocks with the greatest upside potential. Click here for our special report on “marijuana payouts.”
2) Infrastructure spending. A second round of fiscal stimulus died in Congress immediately before the November 3 election, but the severe recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic makes a new relief bill necessary. A likely target of new stimulus spending would be America’s chronic infrastructure needs.
Let’s be clear: a new president will inevitably get sworn in on January 20. The U.S. Constitution demands it. And if neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden concedes by then? Absent a clear winner of the presidential election, the Speaker of the House would serve as Acting President, under the current succession law. So you see, someone will be in charge next year. Whether it’s Biden, Trump or Nancy Pelosi, the chief executive is likely to eventually sign a massive stimulus bill that includes infrastructure projects.
The Global Infrastructure Hub (GIH), a research organization backed by the G20, reports that $97 trillion is required in global infrastructure investment by 2040. The study also found a $18 trillion shortfall between current investment projections and the spending that’s needed.
Among the 50 nations studied in the GIH report, the U.S. has the biggest estimated shortfall at $3.8 trillion. That’s the staggering price tag to get America’s bridges, roads, sewer systems and other infrastructure up to standard.
The non-partisan group Building America’s Future reports that one third of America’s major roads are in poor or mediocre condition and 45% of major urban highways are congested.
Deteriorating infrastructure is a global problem, which makes infrastructure spending an investment trend with multi-year momentum (see chart).
Publicly traded construction companies are responsible for developing the basic facilities and systems of a country, city or region. These companies are vital for economic development and growth; they build and repair the “backbones” of modern cities.
Quality construction firms involved in public infrastructure generate some of the steadiest cash flows of any industry. Investors looking for reliable growth and dividend income in 2021 are well-served by looking into the sector.
3) Green power generation. The migration from fossil fuels to renewable energy confers many environmental advantages, but it also represents a watershed in the power generation sector. Current uncertainty in the crude oil market further cements this trend.
One economic reality never fades: the growing need for utilities, especially those in the vanguard of “green” power such as wind and solar.
I’m especially keen on solar energy as an investment. The cost of solar continues to drop, while at the same time the industry’s infrastructure is becoming more efficient and pervasive. End users are increasingly accustomed to affordable and reliable solar energy, a reality that has de-coupled solar from the price of oil.
Utilities confer growth, safety and income, in good times or bad. They’re generally immune from the political chaos we’re witnessing right now. So far in 2021, the utility sector has beaten the broader market.
Read This Story: Utility Stocks Soar Above The Rest
Income investors covet the high dividends from utilities. These businesses tend to be stable, generating growing dividends and stock price appreciation over time. Utility stocks add ballast to a diversified portfolio.
The Trump-Biden slugfest is generating extreme volatility, but utility stocks should weather the storm. The best-positioned utilities are those embracing next-generation power sources. These “Steady Eddy” companies are resistant to recession, political risk, trade wars, and even the COVID-19 pandemic.
When you’re buying into a business that gets constant revenue from services people will never stop paying for, you’ve got a powerful tailwind at your back. For our list of the best utility stocks in America, click here.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your questions or comments to mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, follow this link.