Why Wall Street Is Thrilled With The Election
As the late Hollywood mogul Samuel Goldwyn once said: “Never make forecasts, especially about the future.” With Goldwyn’s famous malapropism in mind, here’s a compass (instead of a crystal ball) to guide you in the turbulent week ahead.
Political forecasters should have listened to Goldwyn. In the wake of election day, the polling profession has egg on its face. Predictions of a Democratic “blue wave” didn’t come to pass and the votes are still being counted to determine a winner of the presidential race and control of the Senate. But regardless of your political persuasion, you should maintain perspective, at least as far as your finances are concerned.
Wall Street doesn’t really care who wins the presidency. The investor class just wants an end to the drama and that end is in sight. The fat lady is in the wings, warming up her voice.
Investors know that when 2021 starts, we’ll have a president and serious efforts will get underway to enact new spending worth trillions. Doesn’t matter if the president is a Republican or Democrat, as long as his hand can grip a pen long enough to sign a bill into law.
Contrary to what partisans like to believe, there’s no empirical correlation between whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House and the performance of the economy as a whole.
No political party can really claim they are better for the economy and by extension the stock market, at least when it comes to the presidency. The main reason? Congress has the power of the purse. More about that in a minute.
Read This Story: 3 Investment Trends That Defy Political Strife
As of this writing Thursday morning, it appears that Democrat Joe Biden is on his way to winning the presidency. Donald Trump will continue to “rage tweet” and file lawsuits, but the Electoral College math is trending against him.
Wall Street has taken great comfort from diminishing uncertainty over the presidential election. After initial choppiness, stocks soared Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 367.63 points (+1.34%), the S&P 500 climbed 74.28 points (+2.20%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ jumped 430.21 points (+3.85%). Stock futures Thursday morning were set to open sharply higher, as optimism about the election continued.
Hey, big spender…
The stock market is forward looking and Wall Street anticipates massive stimulus spending in 2021. The markets expect a Biden administration to adopt Keynesian measures to prime the economic pump. But even if Trump’s legal challenges somehow succeed and he claws his way to re-election, we’ll still see big fiscal stimulus.
Infrastructure spending and a new coronavirus relief bill are in the cards for next year. Biden also is likely to follow in the footsteps of his predecessors and boost defense spending. The companies that make military aircraft and weapons systems enjoy perpetually full coffers, thanks to taxpayers like you and me. That makes the sector largely immune to recessions, as well as the coronavirus pandemic.
The U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2020 totals $738 billion, a $22 billion increase over last year’s budget. Defense spending is projected to remain on an upward trajectory in 2021, whether under Trump or Biden. The defense industry has powerful friends in Congress in both parties who sit on key committees. Take it from me, who used to work in Congress as a staffer: The Pentagon brass always get their way on Capitol Hill.
One of the surest ways to make money as an investor is to tap unstoppable, long-term trends, and defense firms are riding the biggest growth wave of not only Trump’s presidency but of an entire generation.
However, the mega-cap defense companies are overvalued and vulnerable to a tumble. Better bets are smaller defense firms that specialize in “next-generation” electronics that integrate weapons systems within the Internet of Things.
Another plus for Wall Street with Biden in the White House is the likely end of the U.S.-China trade war. Whether you love or hate Trump, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, whether you think Mexico and China steal U.S. jobs or whether you’re a disciple of unfettered trade… it all doesn’t matter.
Here’s what matters: Wall Street hates tariffs. Period.
The historical evidence shows that tariffs dampen job generation, raise consumer and corporate costs, and hurt the economy. Biden belongs to the free trade school and for that Wall Street is grateful.
Big political wins for marijuana…
Tuesday was politically successful for marijuana advocates, which means election day was a plus for cannabis investors as well. Ballot initiatives in Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota that sought to legalize recreational marijuana use by adults all passed on November 3.
Marijuana equities have been rallying in recent weeks and their rise should continue into next year. Now’s the time to get aboard the “green rush.” The following chart tells the story of pot’s multi-year growth:
It’s only a matter of time before marijuana prohibition is removed not just by the states, but also by the federal government. Several bills are currently pending in Congress that would lift federal restrictions on pot.
Federal and state lawmakers increasingly embrace marijuana legalization, which in turn creates an enormous multi-year tailwind for the cannabis sector. Joe Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris are on record as favoring the normalization of marijuana laws.
With Congress set to resume action on marijuana legislation in 2021, marijuana investments are poised for a prolonged bull run. For the best pot plays now, follow this link.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your questions or comments to mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, follow this link.