Will The Global Economy Fall Sick Again?
I flipped around the major television news outlets last night to conduct a little experiment. I wanted to see how much coverage they gave to “Brexit,” the term for the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union.
The unsurprising answer: none, zip, nada. Lots of coverage was devoted to President Trump’s latest tweets, but nothing about the seismic change about to occur in Europe.
Welcome to the parochialism of the American mainstream media. Although a mostly ignored story in this country, Brexit is a growing threat to all investors. As of this writing, Britain is simultaneously besieged by Brexit and a more virulent strain of COVID.
As I’ll explain below, the global economic recovery is vulnerable to rising geopolitical uncertainty, which in turn jeopardizes the stock market rally. But first, let’s do the numbers.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a record 33.4% annual pace from July through September, an upward revision and the last of three estimates on the economy’s third-quarter performance (see chart).
Under normal circumstances, the 33.4% figure would be astoundingly good news. But of course, circumstances are far from normal.
The Q3 estimate follows the second quarter’s 31.4% plunge, the worst in records dating back to 1947. The U.S. economy fell off a cliff in the spring, due to the coronavirus pandemic. GDP growth will probably show a pronounced slowdown for the fourth quarter, due to the resurgence in coronavirus cases and deaths.
It’s show time, folks…
After months of painstaking bipartisan negotiations, Congress this week finally approved a coronavirus relief bill worth nearly $1 trillion. However, on Tuesday evening, President Trump refused to sign the bill, calling it a “disgrace” because in his view it doesn’t do enough. And so the circus continues.
In pre-market futures trading Wednesday morning, the three main U.S. stock market indices were poised to open modestly higher, as investors expressed confidence that a compromise on the relief bill could be quickly hammered out.
You think Washington, DC is a mess? If you want to see even worse political incompetence, look to our cousins across the pond. It was once said that the sun never sets on the British empire, but right now the remnants of that empire are looking hapless and puny indeed.
Read This Story: A Very British Coup: Brexit’s Threat to Investors
With only a few days left before the U.K. is scheduled to leave the single market, a deal still hasn’t been worked out between the Tory government of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brussels. Without a deal (aka, a “hard” Brexit), economic chaos could ensue. A deal that’s mutually agreeable to U.K. and E.U. negotiators, aka “soft” Brexit, would still cause economic disruption, but less so.
Why should you care? The E.U. is collectively the world’s second-largest economy, in nominal terms, after the United States. Britain is the world’s fifth largest economy. It’s also America’s closest ally, although over the last four years, the trans-Atlantic alliance has been strained by trade war and “America First” policies.
If the U.K. crashes out of the E.U. on January 1 without a deal, it could trigger a chain reaction in Europe, with collateral damage extending to America.
Exacerbating the crisis is the emergence in the U.K. of a mutated strain of coronavirus that’s far more contagious, compelling the British government to reimpose travel restrictions and business lockdowns.
Britain found itself cut off from the rest of Europe on Monday, with flights and trains banned by about 40 countries, due to the fast-spreading COVID variant. Some scientists are even calling the new strain “COVID-20.”
The resurgence of the coronavirus is fueling political and social unrest throughout the European continent, as leaders who thought they had the virus under control must now hastily reimpose personal and business strictures to contain the outbreak.
Germany, the growth engine of Europe, surprisingly finds itself in dire straits as COVID clobbers the populace and the economy all over again. When Germany sneezes, Europe catches cold.
Regardless, I’m confident that better days lay ahead in 2021. Vaccines, stimulus, and loose monetary policy should promote growth and keep stocks afloat. Stay cautious, but stay invested. In a few days, we all get to say goodbye (and good riddance) to 2020.
A new year’s resolution…
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, follow this link.