Reader Letters: Your Questions, Answered
It’s been an historic week, as a new U.S. president takes the reins amid a still-spreading coronavirus.
I find it valuable to occasionally take a step back from the daily noise and reflect on the long view. The questions and comments that I receive via email help me in this regard.
Letters to the editor play a dual role in publishing. They help share knowledge and they serve a corrective function. Let’s dive into my inbox and see what readers are asking.
Misgivings about Biden…
“I am very concerned about my investments for a Biden presidency. I do not see how doubling the minimum wage, allowing thousands upon thousands of migrants into the country and the new regulations that are sure to come will do anything except crash the market.
I do not want to lose what I have built both pre- and post-pandemic. I know you cannot give specific investment advice, but I hope you can provide some strategies to consider going forwards. I do know people who have sold everything they own, but I think that is a dramatic overreaction.” — Stan S.
I’m reminded of similar questions that I received when Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008. Many investors at the time were terrified that Obama would implement “socialist” policies that would ruin the economy and tank the stock market.
At the time, I tried to reassure investors by explaining that Obama’s economic team was drawn from the establishment and they would implement policies designed to help Wall Street and corporate America. However, many readers dumped their stocks anyway because they listened to media fear-mongers.
Read This Story: Four Investment Themes for a Biden Presidency
Too bad for those Chicken Little investors, because Obama’s modest stimulus rescued the economy and enriched investors.
Starting in March 2009, we enjoyed the longest bull market and longest economic recovery in history. If you had invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2009, you would have about $538 at the beginning of 2020, assuming you reinvested all dividends.
Forget about “migrants” and “regulations.” Those issues are of marginal importance to your portfolio. What’s more, studies show that when a state raises the minimum wage, it actually fosters greater business and economic growth. You should put aside ideological preconceptions. Stay focused on the fundamentals.
Notably, the consensus estimate is for earnings growth to substantially recover in 2021, starting with Q1. Stock prices, of course, reflect expectations of future earnings growth and those expectations are optimistic.
Darwinian competition…
“Could you briefly pinpoint the economic winners and losers of the pandemic?” — Sally D.
Like a meteor smashing into the economic landscape, the coronavirus pandemic will ultimately result in a wave of extinctions among companies unable to adapt to the new climate.
The winning companies in a post-pandemic world will occupy such industries as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, remote technologies, robotics, and e-commerce. The dying dinosaurs will be found in such segments as shale oil production, cruise ships, shopping malls, and physical department stores.
Read This Story: Picking The Winners in a Retooled Economy
Not surprisingly, the tourism, leisure and hospitality sector has borne the brunt of job losses, as quarantined consumers cancel vacations and remain stuck at home. However, providers of work-at-home technologies are thriving and they’ll continue to dominate in a post-COVID world.
Inflation fears…
“I’m worried that all of this fiscal and monetary stimulus will generate inflation. What are your thoughts?” — Jerry L.
Right now, there’s enough slack in the jobs market and economy to keep inflation in check. But yes, we’ll eventually see greater inflation later this year. After all, that is the professed goal of the Federal Reserve, as it attempts to stimulate economic activity during the pandemic.
The increasing prospect of inflation makes precious metals and commodities smart trades now. I especially like copper, a crucial commodity that’s currently in scarce supply.
The modern industrial world can’t function without copper. The “red metal” is vital for building construction, power generation and transmission, electronics, industrial machinery, and transportation vehicles. You probably don’t realize it, but copper is all around you.
Copper has historically been a strong hedge against inflation. Indeed, copper serves as a better short-term inflation hedge than gold. I think price projections for copper going out five or more years will prove considerably higher than most analysts expect. That’s great news for the best-situated copper producers.
Our investment team has found a small-cap copper miner that’s poised to thrive. The company has a market cap of only $240 million, a massive discount to its underlying worth. The time to invest in this obscure company is now, before the investment herd finds out and bids up its share price. Click here for details.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach John at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.