VIDEO: The Trend Is Your Friend

Welcome to my video presentation for Monday, May 10. For a deeper dive into my themes, read the article below.

Wall Street tends to over-analyze utterances from top officials in Washington, the way the ancient Romans pored over bird entrails looking for omens.

Case in point: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday, May 4: “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat.” She didn’t say interest rates would definitely need to rise, nor did she assert that the economy was overheating.

But the damage was done. The stock market immediately tanked, as investors started to wring their hands over inflation. Fortunately, the swoon only lasted a single day and markets bounced back on Wednesday, after Yellen clarified her words.

The Gipper rides again…

The Yellen incident highlighted a curious phenomenon: the media and a lot of politicians are intent on talking down the economy. The recovery is robust, but unloved.

The fact is, America currently faces the fastest year of economic growth since the go-go days of President Ronald Reagan in 1984, when his re-election campaign proclaimed it was “morning in America.”

The Commerce Department estimates that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.4% (on an annualized basis) in the first quarter of 2021, recuperating 91% of the pandemic-induced plunge.

The following chart breaks down Q1 2021 GDP into four segments and depicts how each component contributed to total growth of 6.4%.

The government projects that GDP growth will come in at nearly 7% year-over-year in full-year 2021 and 5% in 2022.

Yes, businesses are grappling with supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic. Producer prices are rising, due to greater demand and shortages.

Read This Story: Empty Shelves: Supply Crisis Ahead?

But these are probably temporary problems, typical of booming economies. The short-term gyrations of prices don’t necessarily presage lasting and extreme inflation.

Indeed, the latest jobs report was a disappointment and should assuage fears of hyper-inflation. The government reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls in April increased by a much less than expected 266,000. Economists had expected 1 million. The following chart breaks down job gains and losses, by sector.

The unemployment rate rose from 6% in March to 6.1% in April. A major culprit was the rising shortage of available workers. However, despite all of the white noise you’re hearing in the political realm, there’s no reason to freak out about this jobs report. The pandemic has wrought many ephemeral economic results that defy textbook theories. For example, the current shortage of lumber and chicken wings probably wasn’t on your 2021 bingo card.

The Friday data came on the heels of a jobs report on Thursday that was more favorable. The Labor Department reported that continuing jobless claims rose in the week ending May 1 by 37,000 compared to the previous week, to roughly under 3.7 million. However, we’re still seeing a four-week moving average for claims that’s the lowest since March 2020.

Stocks closed sharply higher last Friday, as the mixed batch of jobs data prompted investors to bet that the Federal Reserve would remain dovish.

This economic expansion and bull market don’t get much respect from many nervous market observers, but conditions are in place for continued growth throughout this summer and beyond. In the meantime, as the following table shows, the stock market rally is alive and well, with U.S. and international equities in positive territory for the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed Friday at record highs and crude oil prices last week continued their sharp rebound.

An unstoppable mega-trend…

Looking for an investment opportunity with market-beating momentum? Consider the rise of cashless payment systems. The cashless society is rising to new heights once only imagined in science fiction.

The self-service retail market already was growing before the pandemic but now it’s exploding. According to Grand View Research, the global digital payment market was valued at $43.5 billion in 2018 and it’s expected to register a compound annual growth rate of 17.6% from 2019 to 2025.

One of the surest ways to make money over the long haul is to gain exposure to inexorable mega-trends. One such trend is the ability to buy almost anything with the tap of a smartphone. Mobile payment volume is on a significant growth trajectory (see chart).

During the pandemic, quarantined consumers got accustomed to mobile cashless payments, more than ever before, because of lockdowns and social distancing. As COVID restrictions ease and consumers get more confident, this development will accelerate.

Even the smallest slice of the payment industry’s multi-billion-dollar pie could result in massive stock price growth.

After months of intensive research, we’ve unearthed a company that’s the leader in cashless payments, but many investors have never heard of it. The time to invest in this little-known company is now, before the herd catches on and bids up its shares. For details, click here.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.