The Global Farms Race

“You’ve gotta tell them! Soylent Green is people!”

Remember that famous line of movie dialogue, uttered by Charlton Heston? The classic 1973 sci-fi film Soylent Green depicts a bleak future set in 2022 in which overpopulation, pollution and climate change have destroyed agriculture. The population is forced to survive on a food ration called “soylent green” (which is processed humans).

The year 2022 is getting closer, in more ways than one.

The next big geopolitical struggle could be over food. Many experts predict that there won’t be enough food to feed growing populations and agricultural commodities will double in price over the next 20 years.

You can leverage this global mega-trend for market-beating growth and simultaneously hedge your portfolio against rising inflation, by placing the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) in your portfolio’s hedges sleeve.

A pure play on basic food products, DBA is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds futures contracts on such agricultural commodities as corn, wheat, soybeans, cocoa, coffee, sugar, and cotton. These contracts are rolled over before expiration to maintain exposure.

Since the coronavirus outbreak last year, the cost of all of those commodities has risen, thanks to supply chain disruptions, severe weather events such as droughts and floods, and political disturbances.

With a net asset value of $953.8 million, DBA is considered a benchmark for the agricultural sector and its expense ratio is a reasonable 0.85%. Commodities in general represent fast-moving investments, and as such deliver the potential for market-beating gains.

The agricultural sector currently stands out as an effective “defensive growth” hedge. It’s also a hedge against inflation, which is rearing its ugly head.

U.S. inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, jumped to 4.2% on an annual basis in April from 2.6% in March, data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed Wednesday. That’s the fastest jump since September 2008.

Read This Story: Prevent Stealth Inflation From Ruining Your Retirement

You can protect your portfolio by rotating toward plays that confer the opportunity for growth but also serve as a buffer against the corrosive effects of inflation.

Agriculture has the properties of an inflation hedge because of the industry’s projected robust and stable growth for decades to come. Amid today’s pandemic uncertainties, providers of “essential services” are good bets for investors. And everybody needs food.

Agricultural assets should enjoy multiyear momentum, as the globe contends with a looming food crisis. In this era of globalization, the world’s food supplies are so interlinked that disruptions anywhere, regardless of whether they’re related to weather, politics or the pandemic, have significant ramifications on the rest of the world. The same is true for any component of the commodities complex, whether it’s metals or energy.

The research group Global Harvest Initiative recently reported that exploding demand for food, feed and fiber will soon outpace agricultural output if demand and production levels remain the same.

Climate change poses a particular threat to agriculture, as farmers try to get greater yields from less and less arable land, to feed ever-growing populations.

Fast profits from fast food…

These are powerful tailwinds for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund. Another positive factor for the agricultural sector is rising affluence in emerging markets, which in turn is creating greater numbers of hungry middle-class consumers.

According to the Brookings Institution: “We are witnessing the most rapid expansion of the middle class, at a global level, that the world has ever seen… Within a few years, based on current forecasts, a majority of the world’s population could have middle-class or rich lifestyles for the first time ever.”

Emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, are showing an insatiable appetite for grain, as rising middle classes in those regions pocket more disposable income and embrace a Western diet that’s heavy on meat and processed convenience foods.

I won’t delve into the health and environmental consequences of fast food’s increasing international popularity, but from an agricultural standpoint, it means that the world’s farmers are in a race to raise more beef, chicken and pork and to grow more feedstock.

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund is an easier and less risky play on agricultural demand than individual stocks. DBA offers investors exposure to commodities without the need for directly trading futures contracts.

Agriculture-linked investments have risen this year and they’re poised for further gains. Year to date, Invesco DB Agriculture Fund has risen 18.1% compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 (see chart).

DBA has racked up a 12-month gain of 39% and it should continue rising in 2021 and beyond, as commodity prices soar and socio-political forces (combined with environmental anomalies and the lingering pandemic) create greater food shortages.

Although I don’t expect hyper-inflation, signs are emerging that inflation is indeed gaining momentum, which compels proactive measures to protect your portfolio.

Agricultural commodity equities and ETFs are a hedge against inflation because food prices often head higher first. As the gold standard for agricultural funds, DBA makes sense for patient investors with an eye on long-term global trends.

The Midas method…

Speaking of gold, you should also consider the “yellow metal” for your hedges sleeve.

About 5%-10% of your hedges sleeve should contain gold, the classic inflation hedge. The value of gold tends to increase as the purchasing power of the dollar declines. The price of gold has been on a tear this year and our investment team predicts that the precious metal will continue its ascent into the foreseeable future.

Our team has just pinpointed a small-cap gold mining stock that’s poised for exponential gains. If you act now, this tiny $9 company could hand you 20 times your money. For details on this under-the-radar gold play, click here.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, follow this link.