A “Picks-and-Shovels” Play on the New Space Race
This week marks the 54th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission, which was launched via the Saturn V heavy-lift rocket on July 16, 1969. The United Nations in 2021 decreed that July 20 be celebrated every year as “International Moon Day.”
As a boy, I was fascinated with the NASA moon program. My bedroom was adorned with model rockets, astronaut action figures, and posters of outer space.
It’s worth noting that the first lunar footprints on July 20, 1969 didn’t actually come from Neil Armstrong. That distinction belongs to Hexcel Corp. (NYSE: HXL).
Below, I explain why Hexcel’s stock would represent one giant leap for your portfolio. It’s the ultimate “picks-and-shovels” play on the contemporary space race.
The final frontier…
A pioneer in the manufacture of high-performance materials, Hexcel made the composite footpads on the Apollo 11 lunar module, as well as similar components for the Mercury and Gemini space programs. Hexcel continues to dominate the composites market and is positioned to ride the accelerating shift toward these super-tough materials in a wide range of industries.
Space exploration today has come a long way from the United States–Soviet Union space race in the 1960s. India, China, and a slew of private companies, from Space X to Blue Origin, are getting into the fray. In addition to space exploration by humans and robots, the satellite industry is rapidly expanding and requires rockets and materials made of ultra-tough composites.
Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) announced Friday that it plans to spend $120 million on a satellite processing facility in Florida, to implement the e-commerce giant’s new “Project Kuiper.” The facility will be located at NASA’s iconic Kennedy Space Center on Cape Canaveral.
Project Kuiper is Amazon’s grand vision to build a network of 3,236 satellites in low earth orbit, to provide high-speed Internet access anywhere in the world. Many of the futuristic materials to build these rockets and satellites will come from Hexcel.
Stamford, Conn.-based Hexcel (market cap: $6.3 billion) is the largest U.S.-based producer of carbon fiber and by far the country’s number one producer of aerospace composite materials.
Hexcel maintains three divisions: commercial aerospace, space and defense, and industrial. All three areas are thriving, despite the current economic slowdown, providing diversification as well as growth potential.
The history of composites goes back to 3400 BC, when the ancient Mesopotamians used a plywood created with glued wood strips. Today, composites are polymer materials reinforced with carbon fiber, forming a strengthened combination that’s light, flexible and durable.
The next decade will see an explosion in the use of composite materials, in a variety of applications that include cars, trains, planes, satellites, boats, bicycles, housing materials, sporting goods, and wind energy.
According to a recent report from the research firm Markets and Markets, global demand for composites is set to rise by a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, to reach $168.6 billion by 2027.
The continual push for greater fuel efficiency is boosting demand for lightweight composites to replace metal parts in automotive manufacture. Meanwhile, development banks are ramping up capital expenditures in composite-dependent wind energy projects across the world.
As demand increases for these sophisticated materials, many manufacturers lack the engineering experience and skills to move away from metal-based assembly lines, forcing them to turn to Hexcel.
Hexcel is a leading supplier of composites for all markets. Two major customers for Hexcel are automotive and wind energy. Within the industrial sector, wind energy comprises over 50% of the company’s annual sales.
Hexcel’s stock price has increased by about 33% during the last 52 weeks, to set a new 12-month high. The technical indicators point to further price appreciation ahead.
The stock sports a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of about 58, which occupies the bullish zone. The RSI provides a snapshot of how a stock is performing relative to the rest of the market.
When the RSI rises above 70, it signals an overbought situation and suggests price reversal. The converse is true when an RSI reading comes in below 30.
As the following chart shows, Hexcel is hovering above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, all of which denotes sustainable momentum:
The moving average gives us a clue as to whether the trend is up or down; it also identifies potential support or resistance areas.
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As it becomes increasingly possible for the U.S economy to execute a “soft landing,” cyclical stocks such as Hexel should benefit from the broad recovery we’re likely to witness in 2024.
The company’s greatest opportunities for growth stem from aerospace, where the use of composites is the most significant manufacturing watershed since aluminum replaced wood in the 1920s.
Hexcel is the chief composite supplier for aerospace giant Boeing (NYSE: BA), which has bet the farm on its new Dreamliner 787, a composite-built passenger aircraft. Composites offer dramatic performance benefits for aircraft, including reduced weight, improved fuel burn, and better resistance against corrosion and damage.
Composites reduce aircraft pollution through greater fuel economy, an important consideration as world governments try to combat climate change by reducing fossil fuel emissions. Composites also allow greater aircraft speed, opening up new competitive opportunities for hard-pressed airlines.
That’s why aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing and its competitors have embraced these futuristic materials for commercial aircraft.
Riding strong tailwinds…
The average analyst expectation is for Hexcel’s year-over-year earnings growth to reach 45.5% in Q3 2023, 39.4% in Q4, and 53.1% in full-year 2023. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is 43.2, which makes the stock reasonably priced in light of its growth prospects.
As I’ve just explained, Hexcel is a great way to profitably leverage the New Space Race. But maybe you’re looking for an even more aggressive technology play.
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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