Investors Are Beating Back the Delta Blues
I’ve been hearing on Spotify lately a lot of bluesy songs about the sadness and isolation caused by COVID-19. But even in the face of COVID’s deadly Delta variant, businesses and consumers are determined to carry on. Amid this economic resilience, Wall Street is beating the Delta blues.
New technological capabilities that are prospering during the work-at-home culture will reach new heights of demand and innovation in the post-COVID world. Below, I pinpoint another sector that’s not only surviving COVID but thriving because of it. It’s one of the most exciting investment opportunities you can find.
To be sure, the public health statistics in specific COVID Delta hot spots, such as Louisiana and Florida, are dismal. But a widespread return to business lockdowns is politically untenable. Unvaccinated people are much more likely to contract COVID, so the federal government is pushing to get doses into as many arms as possible.
Nationwide, vaccinations are picking up and consumers are energized. Retail spending, especially in hospitality and leisure, is on the upswing. The assumption, not unwarranted, is that COVID Delta will eventually get reined in.
Meanwhile, since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, households have been parking substantial cash on the sidelines. Take a look:
As you can see from the above chart, the savings rate has been rising since the end of the last trauma, the Great Recession of 2008.
No crisis lasts forever. Once COVID fades, it’s likely that we’ll witness a boom in public, private and business spending that will drive equities even higher. Money is burning a hole in consumer pockets.
Of course, over the near-term you should brace for volatility. The coronavirus isn’t vanquished yet and we’ll still experience brief corrective sell-offs, especially during sharp spikes of new cases.
For now, though, Wall Street remains bullish (albeit, nervously so). The following chart shows a stock market rally that’s still very much alive. If you had listened to the bears in the beginning of the year, you would have missed substantial gains:
We’re seeing an unusually rapid economic recovery. The recovery after the global financial crash of 2008 was protracted and sluggish. It took six years for the unemployment rate to return to its pre-crisis level. This time around, like a coiled spring, the COVID-damaged economy is snapping back with speed and ferocity (hence the latest inflationary spikes).
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, there’s a record number of job openings, which currently exceeds the number of unemployed. As service sector activity increases, those empty jobs will increasingly get filled.
With vaccines aggressively deployed, schools reopening, and enhanced unemployment benefits expiring in the fall, the labor-force participation rate is poised to recover.
Also during the previous expansion, the housing bubble had burst and credit standards had tightened. Not so in 2021. The housing market remains hot and the Federal Reserve is making sure that the markets are awash in liquidity. As evidenced by second quarter 2021 corporate operating results, the banking sector right now is healthy.
In response to the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. in February-March 2020, the Fed quickly grew its balance sheet by more than $3 trillion over the course of only four months. In tandem with that central bank assistance, the federal government ponied up nearly $6 trillion of fiscal aid. But it doesn’t end there.
The U.S. Senate last week passed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and Democrats are pursuing a separate and larger $3.5 trillion reconciliation package that’s focused on so-called human infrastructure. Not since the Great Society of the 1960s has Washington been so ambitious in its spending initiatives. Meanwhile, July inflation numbers released last week were elevated but showed signs of moderating.
Asset classes that make sense now include small-caps, cyclicals, and value plays. As global growth becomes more synchronized, I also recommend overweight positions in international (especially emerging) markets.
Watch This Video: “Synchronized” Global Growth Is Back
The 2020 recession and market crash were caused by a public health crisis, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1919-1920. It’s instructive to remember that in the wake of that global pandemic a century ago, we enjoyed the roaring 1920s. Get ready for the roaring 2020s, fueled by consumer spending, public works projects, and unparalleled monetary and fiscal stimulus.
We still face many risks, of course. Inflation could prove stickier than the Fed currently predicts and unforeseen COVID variants could come along. But for now, conditions are in place for investors to chase the Delta blues away.
COVID-defying investments…
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your questions or comments to mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, click here.