Why You Should Ignore The Market Doomsayers
Worried that the bull market will soon come to an apocalyptic end? With incessant warnings about “crashes” and “bubbles,” it’s hard not to be. These headline excerpts are indicative of the media’s doom-and-gloom mood:
“Stocks are way too expensive and a crash may be coming” (Business Insider, August 26)
“A stock market correction may be right around the corner” (CNN, August 18)
“The Next Financial Crisis Is Coming” (Newsweek, August 11)
“Market may be in the ‘biggest bubble of my career’ (CNBC, August 9)
But the fact is, for every negative headline, you can always find a positive one. Like this:
“Why stock market bulls may be right to push valuations so high” (Marketwatch, August 26)
With all of this contradictory advice, no wonder you’re stressed. Here’s one thing I know for sure: as hard as you’ve worked, as far as you’ve come, you shouldn’t have to put up with this kind of anxiety.
Just as you’re tempted to believe the naysayers, dump your stocks and “get out of Dodge,” lots of empirical data contradict the Chicken Littles.
We’ve been bombarded for many months with dire headlines that warn of an imminent market crash, and yet as I write this, stocks hover at record highs. If you had been listening to the bears this year, you would have missed out on hefty gains.
You’ve worked hard to build your nest egg. Maybe you’re solidly on your way to financial independence. Maybe you’re almost, but not quite, there.
Stick with me to the end of this article, and I’ll show you how to get instant access to a growth stock that’s poised to make fools of the bears and crush the market. First, let’s look at the latest developments in the world of money.
The action in Jackson…
The Federal Reserve started its Jackson Hole (WY) Symposium on Thursday, which is scheduled to run through Saturday. So far, the confab (conducted virtually because of the pandemic) has been uneventful. All eyes are on Fed Chief Jerome Powell, who speaks Friday.
Read This Story: Your Fed Decoder Ring
There’s been plenty of drama from Afghanistan, where escalating violence in the “graveyard of empires” has spooked investors.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 192.38 points (-0.54%), the S&P 500 dropped 26.19 points (-0.58%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ slipped 96.05 points (-0.64%). The small-cap Russell 2000 declined 25.29 points (-1.13%). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ snapped a five-day winning streak.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Thursday jumped by more than 12%. In recent days, some traditional “risk-on” asset classes (e.g., small-caps and high-beta stocks) have lost traction as investors turn toward large-cap growth companies. The flight to growth (e.g., Big Tech) seems counterintuitive as a defensive move, but investors are finding comfort in familiar “story stocks.”
In pre-market futures contracts Friday, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all trading in the green, as investors shake off fears about monetary policy and Afghanistan to buy on the dips. Asian and European markets were mixed.
Silver linings playbook…
Why do I remain optimistic about the stock market, despite the braying of the prophets of doom? For starters, economic growth is strong. Stock valuations are high, but those lofty levels may soon be justified.
According to the latest projections from the Conference Board, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will climb to 7% (annualized rate) in the third quarter of 2021 and 6% (year-over-year) in 2021.
Looking further out, the Board forecasts year-over-year GDP growth of 4% in 2022 and 3% in 2023. Those forecasts for both years were upgraded due to the successful advancement (and likely enactment) in Congress of President Biden’s infrastructure package.
Corporate earnings are encouraging as well. According to research firm Refinitiv, S&P 500 second-quarter 2021 earnings are on track to post a year-over-year gain of 94.7%. The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q3 is 29.7%.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been arguing that recent spikes in inflation are transitory (I happen to agree). Interest rates are likely to remain at historic lows; a Fed rate hike isn’t expected until 2023. COVID Delta is the wild card, but the pace of vaccinations is picking up speed.
Declining unemployment is another plus. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, touching pandemic-era lows.
First-time filings for claims reached 353,000 for the week ended August 21, only slightly worse than the consensus estimate of 350,000 and a slight increase from the previous week’s 349,000.
A separate economic report, released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed that GDP climbed at a 6.6% annualized pace in Q2, ahead of the 6.5% estimate (see chart).
Another tailwind for stocks is the likely passage in the fall of President Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure package, which will benefit a wide array of industries, including renewable energy and other leading-edge technologies.
Bet on growth…
As I’ve just explained, the COVID-wounded economy continues to heal. The end is not nigh.
Don’t leave money on the table, by turning your back on growth opportunities. In fact, we’ve just pinpointed a growth stock that belongs in any portfolio.
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The time to invest in this company is now, before it starts getting widespread coverage by the financial media and its share price soars. Click here for details.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send your questions or comments to mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to John’s video channel, click here.