Dr. Duarte’s Profitable Rx For Uncertain Times
The stock market doctor is in the house.
Dr. Joe Duarte (pictured) has been a professional investor and independent analyst since 1990. He is a former registered investment advisor and author of the bestselling Trading Options for Dummies and several other books, including Market Timing for Dummies and Successful Biotech Investing.
He’s also a medical doctor, with a thriving practice. When he’s not advising investors, he’s treating patients.
We’ve put together a new premium trading service for Dr. Duarte to run, called Weekly Cash Machine. He already serves as chief investment strategist of our publication, Profit Catalyst Alert.
With the markets in turmoil and inflation fears preying on investors, now’s a good time for me to interview Dr. Duarte. My questions are in bold.
Technology stocks have taken a beating lately, largely due to rising interest rates. Do you think the sector is oversold, or is further carnage ahead?
As I’ve noted before: technology stocks are definitely oversold. But they can stay oversold for a longer time than anyone expects. Staying patient for a bit longer is likely to be a good plan.
Moreover, it’s not really a good time to look at the broad indices for direction, because they’re all distorted by the movement of huge stocks such as Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) and Alphabet’s (NSDQ: GOOGL) Google, which are heavily weighted in the indices.
At the same time, there are some bargains out there, but they’re not that easy to find. The real question is whether the bargains will be even better in a few days to weeks.
Rising interest rates tend to hurt tech stocks, but which sectors will benefit in the second half of 2022 and beyond from Federal Reserve tightening?
Well, I’m still of the belief that the Fed won’t be able to tighten as much as they’ve forecast, because the economy is in some ways weaker than they seem to think. The upside is, if they push too hard, they would be forced to reverse course and actually start easing rates down the road. Some analysts are now embracing this viewpoint, and we saw a big rally just before Memorial Day as investors started betting on that scenario.
If and when that Fed policy move actually develops, we should see a broad rally in technology and other sectors. The key to success is to stay patient and plan ahead. Make a shopping list and have it ready for when conditions improve.
Of course, it’s hard not to be concerned when the market starts crashing. But over the years I’ve learned that panic often creates opportunity to buy stocks and ETFs at bargain prices. This is especially true when the panic is based on news items that are not fully vetted, such as anxieties over COVID-19 variants that prove milder than predicted.
Do you expect inflation to worsen this year, or eventually moderate?
I think the crucial factor for inflation is what happens in the labor market and whether companies decide to increase manufacturing capacity onshore.
Read This Story: Inflation: Still The Big Story
Right now, there’s too much money available and not enough production to meet demand for goods and services. And that is the classic definition of inflation.
My guess is that we’ll see some slowing in the rate of inflation over time, especially if people start to lose their jobs, but maybe not a full return to what we had in the past few years. We’ve had too many long-term structural changes in the way the economy works.
Which inflation hedges make the most sense right now?
Surprisingly, stocks in select sectors such as energy and commodities are still holding up. But in the current market, investors should stay patient, nimble and very thoughtful about where they put their money.
If I had one sentence to describe what I’m thinking it would be: “If it’s working, stay with it.”
It seems that China’s economy is slowing. What are the ramifications for U.S. investors?
It’s hard to know what the leaders in Beijing are doing or what they will do next. Some pandemic restrictions have eased, but the authorities are still imposing lockdowns in major port cities and they may impose more in the future. That really makes supply chain issues messier than they already are.
At the same time, though, while the world is raising interest rates, China is now lowering rates. But it’s hard to know what that means at the moment because of the country’s COVID situation. For me, the bottom line is always risk management.
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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