Perhaps it’s easy to get a job as a pundit on financial television. Here’s how I envision the interview: “Show me your panic face. Scary! You’re hired.”

Cable news shows are hysterical affairs designed to trigger your emotions, to drive ratings. It’s a major reason why most Americans think U.S. crime rates are soaring (fact: they’ve been falling for 30 years); the U.S. military is hollowed-out (fact: we have by far the largest military budget on the planet); the economy is in recession (fact: it’s expanding); and a bear stock market is around the corner (fact: several underlying fundamentals remain sound).

The media’s purveyors of doom are coming out of the woodwork to tell us that the stock market is about to crash into bear territory. But I don’t expect the bear to awaken anytime soon. Below, I explain why.

Read This Story: Panic Is Not an Investment Strategy

The main U.S. indices ended lower Thursday, after another roller-coaster ride. The indices closed as follows: the Dow Jones Industrial Average -7.31 (-0.02%); the S&P 500 -23.42 (-0.54%); the NASDAQ -189.34 (-1.40%); and the Russell 2000 -44.18 (-2.29%). The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone this week spooked Wall Street.

After the opening bell Friday, stocks were trading mixed. Shares of bellwether Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) were trading sharply higher, following the company’s stellar operating results. AAPL was helping to lift the tech-heavy NASDAQ into the green.

We ended a volatile week with a batch of mixed economic data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the employment cost index, a measure of pay and benefits the Fed closely watches, jumped by 1% in the final quarter of 2021 from the previous year.

Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 5.8% in December, up from 5.7% the previous month. That level exceeded the previous month to become the fastest pace since 1982. In response to the PCE data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ticked higher.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that consumer spending sank 0.6% in December from the previous month, as Omicron and inflation made consumers skittish.

Goldilocks is back…

As always, risk abounds. But overall, the long-term outlook for the economy and corporate earnings remains positive.

A report released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.7% in 2021, the fastest rate of growth since 1984. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following an increase of 2.3% in the third quarter.

The jobs market has recovered nearly 19 million of the 22 million jobs lost near the peak of pandemic-induced interruptions in business activity.

In other words, “Goldilocks” is back in town. These BEA numbers show that the U.S. economy isn’t on track for a recession, while at the same growth isn’t hot enough to prompt the Fed to accelerate its schedule to normalize rates. For stock investors, the data show a favorable scenario: the economy continues to grow, but at a moderate pace.

According to research firm FactSet, U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2022. For calendar year 2022, the figure is 4.0%, well above the economy’s long-term trend growth rate (see chart).

In addition, the Labor Department reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims totaled 260,000 in the week ended January 22, down 30,000 from the prior period, compared to expectations of 265,000.

FactSet (the data provider for Investing Daily) also brings good news on the corporate earnings front. For the fourth quarter, S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings growth of 21.8% and revenue growth of 12.9% (on a year-over-year basis). For the full year, the index is reporting earnings growth of 45.3% and revenue growth of 15.9%. For Q1 2022, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 6.2% and revenue growth of 9.7%.

Companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q4 2021 have enjoyed an average share price increase of +2.8% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage increase exceeds the five-year average price increase of +0.8% during this same window for companies reporting positive earnings surprises.

The above data about the economy and earnings hardly constitute a doomsday scenario. And remember, market downturns provide bargains.

Wages are rising, GDP is growing, and joblessness is falling. We’re still in for a bumpy ride, but there are sufficient positive factors to keep the bear in hibernation.

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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.

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