VIDEO: Optimism Returns to The Street
Welcome to my latest video presentation. For a condensed transcript, read the article below.
“May you live in interesting times.” It’s an ancient Chinese curse, and you’ve probably heard it invoked before. The month of January certainly has been interesting for investors and financial markets. But by week’s end, the curse had lost a lot of its sting, with U.S. stocks slightly ahead.
We’ve endured a dismal start to 2022, but last Friday, markets rebounded and posted their best day of the month. The bull still shows signs of life.
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday resulted in the Fed preparing markets for a March hike in the Fed’s policy rate, the first such hike since 2018, as well as the conclusion of tapering.
But after a turbulent week that saw several consecutive days of losses, the market capped last week with a powerful rally.
The battered technology sector was in the vanguard, propelled by bellwether Apple (NSDQ: AAPL), which posted strong quarterly operating results Thursday. The tech behemoth racked up earnings per share of $2.10 versus $1.89 estimated, up 25% year-over-year.
It was a nerve-wracking week, but the markets didn’t crash after all (see table).
Crude oil prices also finished higher for the week, a sign that traders expect economic growth to drive greater energy demand.
It’s been a rough winter for investors so far, but keep your sense of perspective. The S&P 500 is up nearly 95% since its March 2020 lows. What’s more, we never got a downturn of more than 5% in 2021, but historically, one to three corrections in the range of 5% – 15% are normal in any given year.
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In coming weeks, the biggest dangers will be among the riskier speculative investments (e.g., cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens) and excessively valued stocks. A lot of fawning media coverage has been devoted to cryptocurrencies, in large part because they make for a colorful narrative. However, this asset class has plunged in value lately.
The greatest opportunities will be among sectors that benefit from cyclical economic growth and rising rates (e.g., energy and financials).
Wall Street has now priced in about five rate hikes for 2022. The Fed will probably get aggressive in the early stages of its tightening cycle.
One factor that both helps and hurts American households is rising wage growth. A tighter labor market that results in fatter pay envelopes is giving consumers more financial wherewithal, but it’s a major component in hotter inflation.
It’s my view that inflation will probably ease from currently elevated rates, but not until the second half of 2022.
Another bullish indicator is healthy U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth (see my video for more details and charts).
Because we’re not near the conclusion of the economic expansion, I continue to believe that market selloffs can be leveraged as buying opportunities. Many story stocks with inherent appeal have been trading at nosebleed levels; investors will get rare opportunities to buy them on the dips.
Equities historically have performed well during the beginning of Fed tightening, especially during the six to 12 months after the first hike. Over the past five cycles of Fed tightening, the average stock market return in the year after rate hikes began was 5%.
The upshot: Optimism is warranted. Stay cautious but stick to your investment strategy. Keep a “wish list” of stocks that you’d like to own but which are too expensive. As desirable stocks land on the bargain shelf, it’ll be your chance to scoop them up.
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This trade is poised to make money, regardless of the path of the pandemic or Fed policy. To learn more, click here now.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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