Reader Letters: Ukraine, Energy, Gold, and More
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting volatility in global equity markets have underscored for me a familiar trend: when a geopolitical crisis hits, my inbox gets flooded with reader correspondence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine is the worst military aggression we’ve seen in Eastern Europe since 1945. I’m a devotee of World War II documentaries. It’s been jarring this week to see images of Russian tanks on the move in that region, as if I were watching a WWII news reel.
Readers are understandably anxious. Below, I provide perspective to facilitate the right investment decisions.
My answers address representative samples of emails that I’ve received in recent days. These messages are arriving to me through various forums, but as always, my preferred address is mailbag@investingdaily.com.
The crude facts…
“Oil prices are soaring because of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as because of supply disruptions. How high do you think oil can go and what does it mean for investors?” — Richard S.
The per-barrel prices of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and international benchmark Brent North Sea crude have shot past $100 per barrel, the highest levels since 2014. Many analysts think crude could reach $125/bbl and maybe even $150/bbl this year.
Economic growth, supply imbalances caused by the pandemic, and Western sanctions against Russia’s energy production are sending crude oil prices through the roof.
Watch This Video: Cry Havoc: How War Affects The Markets
Inflation already has been running hot; surging energy prices will only make it worse. Make sure your portfolio has exposure to inflation hedges, notably gold.
Energy-linked equities and exchange-traded funds also make sense now. Rising energy prices increase corporate costs, hurt consumers, and cause greater pain at the gasoline pump, but they also lift the earnings and revenue of the oil and gas sector. For our report on “the mother of all oil booms,” click here.
Bear market looming?
“Stocks were slumping even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Hotter inflation and rising interest rates were pre-existing threats. Now geopolitics is making matters worse. Do we face a bear market?” — Thomas W.
It’s true, the major U.S. stock market indices were on a downward trend before the Ukraine invasion greased the skids. The following chart tells the story:
U.S. stock indices are experiencing their worst month since March 2020. But keep in mind, stocks (especially those in the technology sector) have been overvalued and due for a correction. The Russia-Ukraine crisis was the pin that popped the bubble.
The general definition of a market correction is a decline of more than 10%, but less than 20%. A bear market is a decline of 20% or greater. U.S. indices in recent days have been fluctuating in and out of correction territory, but there’s a good chance we’ll avoid a prolonged bear market slump.
Corporate earnings are strong; the economic recovery is still on track; unemployment continues to fall; and the pandemic appears to be waning. (Omicron? That’s so yesterday.)
When valuations are frothy, corrections are healthy events. Stock market selloffs put inherently strong stocks on the bargain shelf. Notably, tech stocks that were overvalued are starting to look attractively priced again.
Don’t get too spooked by Mr. Putin’s bellicosity. Global capitalism is a resilient force. We saw on Thursday how quickly and massively stocks can rebound, even during times of geopolitical danger.
The stock market’s swing from red to green Thursday was an epic roller-coaster ride. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, after declining more than 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 859-point plunge to close 92.07 points higher. The tech-heavy NASDAQ jumped 3.5% after falling about 3.5% during the trading session.
The catalyst for the stunning reversal in equities was President Biden’s speech announcing additional tough sanctions against Russia, which reassured investors. Also calming frayed nerves is the solidarity shown by the U.S.-European alliance against Russia. Biden is scheduled to meet with NATO leaders on Friday.
Invading a sovereign country is one thing; ruling that country is another. Russia’s disastrous experience in Afghanistan comes to mind. It’s entirely likely that Putin will get hoisted by his own petard and find himself greatly weakened. And global investors will move on to the next crisis du jour.
The commodities super-cycle…
“Commodities prices have been soaring. Is it too late to get in on the action? Maybe I missed the boat.” — Peter J.
There’s still time to profit from the trend. The bull market in commodities prices will continue this year and beyond.
The combination of global economic growth, vast infrastructure projects, and the rise of middle classes in emerging markets has been pushing up prices for a wide range of commodities.
Indeed, we’re witnessing the start of a commodities “super-cycle.” A super-cycle is a decades-long, above-trend, upward trajectory in a wide range of base material prices, stemming from a structural change in demand. It’s how fortunes are made.
Increasing your exposure to hard assets and raw materials is a way to simultaneously tap growth and insulate against inflation. One of the world’s most vital commodities is copper.
Modern industry requires copper…lots of it. Copper is crucial for building construction, power generation and transmission, electronics, industrial machinery, and transportation vehicles. Because copper is a highly efficient conduit, the booming renewables industry can’t function without it.
Copper is in great demand but short supply, which spells huge future gains for producers of the “red metal.” For details about copper and how to profit from its rise, click here.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
Subscribe to John’s video channel: