How to Profit From Putin’s Epic Blunder
“Hoisted by his own petard” is a Shakespearean idiom, coined by the great bard in Hamlet. It means to be hurt by one’s plot intended for another, a term that derives from explosive devices hoisted over fortress walls during Medieval battles. These bombs often went awry and destroyed the assailant.
Russian President Vladimir Putin comes to mind. His invasion of Ukraine already is backfiring. Below, I show you how to trade amid these geopolitical developments.
According to data from the Central Bank of Russia, the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves have been steadily growing. At the beginning of 2018 the reserves totaled almost $448 billion in value; Russia’s war chest currently hovers at more than $630 billion, an increase of 41% (see the following chart).
Putin, an ex-KGB colonel and a rapacious kleptocrat, has been amassing a war chest in advance of contingencies such as his invasion of Ukraine. The West’s major weapon against Russia is sanctions; Putin intended a robust rainy day fund to take the sting out of any future sanctions.
But Putin has a problem. In recent days, the West has taken measures to severely impede Russia’s ability to tap these reserves. Among the sanctions imposed, the U.S. announced that it would block dollar assets of Russia’s central bank and its Direct Investment Fund.
The Russian ruble has collapsed because of sanctions, prompting Moscow to hike interest rates to buoy the national currency. Russian banks are scrambling to stave off panicky runs, and counter the West’s restrictions of Russian access to the global payments system SWIFT.
The world has aligned itself with Ukraine and Putin finds himself a pariah. Street protests against the war are proliferating in Russia, which is a startling phenomenon in a dictatorship that tolerates no dissent and treats protestors harshly. Meanwhile, the European Union is financing and shipping significant amounts of weapons to Ukraine, to support the country’s insurgency.
Germany is abandoning its post-WWII pacifist stance to militarily rearm; ordinarily neutral Switzerland has frozen Russian assets; and major oil companies — e.g. BP (NYSE: BP) and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) — are divesting Russian energy operations. The Russian economy now faces recession.
Watch This Video: Wall Street and The God of War
Ukrainians have shown remarkable tenacity and patriotism in fighting off the Russians, slowing Putin’s initial invasion plans. Geopolitical experts increasingly talk about Putin’s vulnerability to a coup, as his oligarch pals grow resentful and the Ukraine invasion bogs down into a quagmire.
The thwarting of Putin’s plans so far has encouraged investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell Monday, by 0.49% and 0.24%, respectively. But the tech-heavy NASDAQ and small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.41% and 0.35%, respectively. The major U.S. indices had rallied strongly on Friday.
Considering the fact that there’s open warfare in eastern Europe, global equities seem to be holding their own. In pre-market futures contracts Tuesday, U.S. stocks were trading in the green.
A “remember the Alamo” moment…
I was emotionally moved when I recently saw a video clip of a Russian naval vessel annihilating an outpost manned by 13 Ukrainian border guards. The commander of the naval vessel radioed his demand of immediate surrender. The response of the Ukrainian leader: “Russian warship, go f*** yourself.” The brave Ukrainians were promptly fired upon and killed.
Putin has accomplished a goal that in recent years has eluded America and its allies: trans-Atlantic unity. Several major Western countries are now acting in concert to hamstring Russia. As an investor and as a citizen of the world, I’m betting on Ukraine. Which is to say, I expect Putin to fail miserably and financial markets to regain their momentum. A relief rally could be waiting in the wings.
During the Russia-Ukraine crisis, buy on the dips. The thriving energy sector, and already beaten down tech stocks, are good places to start.
Read This Story: How to Play The Ukrainian Rebound
That said, I won’t deny that inflation remains a serious threat, especially as the war boosts the prices of commodities. Increasing your exposure to hard assets and raw materials is a shrewd way to simultaneously tap growth and insulate against inflation. One of the world’s most vital commodities is copper.
Modern industry requires copper…lots of it. Copper is crucial for building construction, power generation and transmission, electronics, industrial machinery, and transportation vehicles. Because copper is a highly efficient conduit, the booming renewables industry can’t function without it.
Copper is in great demand but short supply, which spells huge future gains for producers of the “red metal.” For details about copper and how to profit from its rise, click here.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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