Inflation, Oil, and The War: Glimmers of Hope?
Avoid emotional extremes. Don’t wring your hands over daily events. There’s still enough good news to keep you in the market.
In fact, there have been signs this week that inflation, energy prices, and the Russia-Ukraine war are easing as headwinds. All of this comes with a big maybe, but there’s growing optimism among investors right now.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the “core” Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes foods, energy, and trade services, was up only 0.2% in February, well below 0.6% expected and 0.8% in January. The headline PPI was still way up, +0.8%, on rising energy prices (see chart).
Because the PPI measures wholesale price changes before they reach consumers, many analysts view the PPI as an earlier predictor of inflation than the more popularly followed consumer price index (CPI).
It would be a stretch to assert that the latest PPI numbers represent a turning point on inflation. The headline number remains elevated. On an unadjusted basis, the PPI has risen by 10.0% for the 12 months ending in February 2022. At best, the data is a mixed bag.
Nonetheless, the latest PPI reading sent stocks soaring, as beleaguered investors seized on any scrap of good news.
The main U.S. stock market indices on Tuesday performed as follows: the Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.82%; the S&P 500 +2.14%; the NASDAQ +2.92%; and the Russell 2000 +1.40%.
In early trading Wednesday, U.S. stocks were extending their rebound, as Kremlin officials expressed surprising optimism concerning a path to peace for the Russia-Ukraine war. The Dow has erased its losses for March.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Wednesday delivered an impassioned plea to a joint session of Congress for more military aid, evoking comparisons in the press to British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s address to Congress in 1943.
What’s more, crude oil prices are slumping, falling below $100 per barrel. Oil has lost about 27% of its value since touching a near 14-year high of $130.50 a barrel on March 6. See the following per-barrel price chart for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for crude, for the past three months:
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Mind Over Markets
Concern about sputtering Chinese demand amid renewed COVID lockdowns in that country is spooking oil speculators.
The Russia-Ukraine “war premium” on crude is waning, as hopes emerge for peace talks. Soaring energy prices, of course, have been a major component of high inflation.
At the same time, we’re starting to see signs that pandemic-caused supply chain disruptions, which have fed inflation, are finally getting resolved.
There’s been a rout in recent days in Chinese tech stocks, largely due to the Russia-Ukraine war and the resurgence of the pandemic. Overseas and institutional investors that lost money on the collapse in Asian markets have ploughed into safer U.S. investments.
Read This Story: Navigating The Twin Risks of Inflation and War
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday; analysts expect a quarter point hike.
So far this week, financials have been the best performing sector. Banking is a “spread” business. Banks profit from the gap between the interest rate they receive on their assets and the rate that they pay on liabilities. That dynamic makes bank stocks good bets during periods of rising rates.
By contrast, growth stocks tend to get clobbered by Fed tightening, because higher rates erode the value of their future earnings. That’s especially true for high-flying tech shares, although tech shares rebounded Tuesday and early Wednesday as investors focused on economic growth.
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Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) estimates that the autonomous driving systems market is on track to generate $290 billion in revenue by 2035, up from $3 billion in 2015.
But you might be surprised to learn that your greatest opportunity to make money from the Apple Car isn’t buying Apple stock itself.
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.