War, Putin, and Crude Reality
Today, let’s step back from the daily white noise on Wall Street to focus on the big picture. A realignment in the global energy sector is unfolding, and investors need to get in front of it.
History shows that profound and lasting change usually isn’t the result of political or financial incrementalism. The death of the status quo typically is caused by sudden and unexpected trauma: wars, famines, plagues, natural disasters, revolutions, etc. A meteor killed the dinosaurs; the Black Plague ended feudalism; World War I destroyed Europe’s monarchical dynasties; the coronavirus pandemic hastened the demise of the shopping mall; and so on.
Wall Street calls these events “black swans.” Some economists refer to the process as “creative destruction.” Which brings me to the Russia-Ukraine war.
It’s clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has blundered badly by invading Ukraine. The conflict has become a quagmire of carnage and civilian atrocities, with no end in sight.
Wars have a way of unfolding in unpredictable ways. A single battle can change the outcome of an entire war, and the outcome of a war can change the destiny of civilizations. Think Thermopylae, Waterloo, Stalingrad…and now, perhaps, Kyiv.
Here’s what I’m getting at: Putin’s misbegotten war already has done more for green, alternative energy than any “Build Back Better” or “Green New Deal” legislation could possibly hope to achieve. Therein lays a salient investment opportunity, as I’ll explain below.
All eyes on Europe…
Snap quiz: What’s the world’s largest trading bloc?
Answer: It’s the 27 nations of the European Union, America’s most important ally.
The leaders of the EU have surprised Putin, and even themselves, with their decisive and unified response to Russia’s invasion. The EU has dramatically cut back on trade and investments in Russia.
The EU last month agreed to slash 90% of Russia’s crude oil imports by the end of 2022. This move not only hammers Russia, which depends on energy exports to run its economy and fight the war, but it also entails an enormous sacrifice for EU businesses and consumers.
The backdrop to these events is the rapid proliferation of renewable energy, such as solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, and electric vehicles (EVs). These green alternatives are price competitive with fossil fuels. Automakers around the world are ramping up EV production and creating new types of EV batteries and recharging methods.
The following chart shows the fast growth in global EV sales:
In any aspect of life, personal or commercial, meaningful change only occurs when the pain gets bad enough. And there’s plenty of pain these days at the pump. The average cost of gasoline in the U.S. currently hovers near $5.00 per gallon.
The West will never trust Putin again. Russia may be a major oil producer, but it’s now a pariah state. Consumers and businesses will pursue alternative sources of energy with even more vigor. Tech start-ups with ingenious green solutions are coming to the fore.
Watch This Video: 5 Tech Megatrends for 2022
Putin’s revanchist adventure, which he mistakenly thought would be a cakewalk, will accelerate global efforts at decarbonization. We now face an inflection point for green energy in general and EVs in particular. The transition away from the internal combustion engine and toward EVs is rapidly accelerating, and it’s one of the biggest investment themes of our lifetimes.
The combination of climate change, surging crude oil prices, and supply chain havoc wreaked by the Russia-Ukraine war is giving the green revolution greater urgency.
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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.
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