Reader Letters: Powell, Putin, Truss, Biden…and More
Jerome Powell, Vladimir Putin, Liz Truss, and Joe Biden…it reads like the opening to a “walk-into-a-bar” joke. But those global personages are no joke.
Regardless of your personal opinions of various world leaders, their words and actions have serious ramifications for everyone, including investors.
There are two schools of thought about human history: 1) it’s driven by impersonal, inexorable cycles and trends, or 2) it’s molded by the actions of great but fallible individuals. I take a hybrid approach and embrace both schools.
Let’s dive into the editorial “mailbag” to see what readers want to know about recent events on the world stage. In my answers below, I strive to provide analysis that’s useful for investors of all types.
Powell talks down the markets (again)…
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a 0.75% hike in the fed funds rate for the fourth time, a move that the markets had already expected. So why did stocks tumble on the news? It’s not as if the interest rate increase was unexpected.” — William S.
It’s true, the consensus on Wall Street had been that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 75 basis points (0.75%), bringing the Fed’s new target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.75% and 4.0%. It’s also true that the major U.S. stock market indices took a dive after the news.
The catalyst for the decline in equities was, as usual, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary following the announcement. As George Thorogood sang: “You talk too much.”
In a pattern that we’ve seen over and over again, markets at first jumped higher on the Fed news, and then promptly sank as soon as Powell started flapping his gums at the podium. The cause-and-effect would almost be comical, if it weren’t wealth-destroying.
In his late afternoon press conference Wednesday, Powell said there is “significant uncertainty” around the level of rates needed to bring down inflation, but “we still have some ways to go.” Powell also warned that rates would top out at a higher “terminal” level.
In a mildly dovish concession, Powell hinted that the U.S. central bank is willing to weigh the possibility of adopting a less aggressive stance at its next meeting in December: “That time is coming, and it may come as soon as the next meeting, or the one after that.”
But for the most part, Powell’s message about a dovish pivot was: fughedaboutit.
Separate from Powell’s spoken words, the Federal Open Market Committee’s written statement Wednesday took a sharp dig at Russian President Vladimir Putin:
“Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity.”
Most economists (the non-partisan and credible ones, anyway) put much of the blame for inflation and economic contraction on Vlad’s shoulders.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has unambiguously declared that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the dominant factor behind global economic woes.
This earth, this realm, this England…
“My understanding of recent events in the UK was that the PM wanted to reduce the income tax rate on individuals and cancel a future income tax increase on businesses. I understand the PM’s plans to be supply side economics which we implemented under President Reagan. Back then, reducing tax rates resulted in increased production, increased income, and increased income tax revenues. Why have you [denigrated] the PM’s plan?” — Don N.
Former Tory Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign after only 44 days in office. She was replaced by Rishi Sunak. Her swift downfall was triggered by the fiscal plan you mention.
Truss presented a supply-side blueprint for slashing taxes, despite hot inflation and rapidly rising interest rates.
Read This Story: Getting a Grip on Geopolitical Risk
Economists warned that the plan’s new spending and unfunded tax cuts would increase inflation by stoking consumer spending, and burden the government with greater (and increasingly more expensive) debt.
The measures conflicted with overall attempts by the U.K.’s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), to combat inflation by tightening monetary policy. Truss’ plan was fiercely condemned by all sides of the political spectrum, as well as by the IMF.
Due to the Truss plan, British government bond yields soared in tandem with the plummeting pound, prompting the BoE to resurrect its bond-buying program in an emergency move to stabilize financial markets and shore up pension funds.
Biden’s evolution on pot…
“Where does President Biden stand on pot legalization?” — Deborah B.
Biden’s thinking on marijuana has evolved. When running for president in 2020, Biden made anti-legalization remarks, notably calling pot a “gateway” drug. He has since walked back that comment and his administration is currently supportive of various bills in Congress to lift federal restrictions on cannabis.
WATCH THIS VIDEO: Biden’s Big Gift to Pot Investors
A catalyst for the cannabis industry’s growth occurred last month, when Biden announced a pardon for thousands of Americans convicted of “simple possession” of marijuana under federal law. The move addressed policing practices that disproportionately hurt minorities and renewed momentum for legalizing weed on the national level.
PS: The marijuana industry has become a global, multi-billion-dollar juggernaut. That’s why I held an investment Town Hall, on November 1, called “The Marijuana Millionaire Countdown.”
During my online Town Hall, I revealed the one simple marijuana trade that’s on track to reap exponential profits for investors. There’s still time to jump aboard my event, which was archived for easy around-the-clock access. Click here for your free spot.
John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach John at: mailbag@investingdaily.com
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