11/7/12: Atlantic Power’s Cash Flow Quandary

I’m not ordinarily in the habit of sending out Flash Alerts the week a Canadian Edge issue posts. And with the next issue coming out this Friday, I’m not going to comment right now on the flood of earnings we’re seeing, other than to say the news is mostly bullish, and more than a few holdings are raising dividends.

The drop in Atlantic Power’s (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) shares this week, however, is worth making an exception. The market action is basically a reaction to the company’s third-quarter earnings conference call, during which management reduced its cash flow projection for the Lake and Auburndale gas-fired power plants in Florida.

Power sales contracts on the plants are still likely to be renewed when they expire in June 2013. But with lower natural gas prices driving down wholesale electricity prices, margins are likely to be significantly lower.

The challenge of recontracting the Florida plants has been known for some time, and explains the cautious attitude of analysts toward the stock in recent months. And reducing the dependence of overall cash flows on these facilities has been a key corporate goal for Atlantic for some time, spurring last year’s Capital Power LP merger, as well as this year’s construction of a 300-megawatt wind power plant in Oklahoma.

This drop in future cash flow, however, means Atlantic is going to have to buy/build new assets the next few years in order to continue growing the dividend. The stock’s drop is in large a part a reflection of that reality, as the company was immediately downgraded by two of the analysts covering it. The current analyst count is zero buys, two holds and five sells, though all but one firm has set a 12-month target price above the current level.

To be clear, management did not issue a warning on the current dividend. This is still the same company, and overall guidance has not really changed. As a result, I’m sticking with Atlantic, but with one caveat.

I’ve heard from a number of investors this week to the effect that they have “significant” positions in this stock. My advice is always to balance your portfolio and diversify, not load up on a single holding. Any company can stumble, which is why you should never overweight any one position. That means no doubling down on Atlantic.

Here’s when recommended companies are reporting third quarter numbers, as well as where to find my analysis on companies that have already reported. Any company not already featured in a Flash Alert and reporting on Nov. 9 or earlier will be highlighted in the November issue of Canadian Edge.


Conservative Holdings
  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Nov. 2 Flash Alert
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Nov. 7 Flash Alert
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–Nov. 9 (confirmed)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Nov. 5 (confirmed)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Nov. 5 (confirmed)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–November 9 (confirmed)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR)–Oct. 26 Flash Alert
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Oct. 26 Flash Alert

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–Nov. 2 Flash Alert
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Nov. 14 (confirmed)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Nov. 19 (estimate)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Nov. 12 (confirmed)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Oct. 23 Flash Alert
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Nov. 7 (confirmed)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Nov. 12 (confirmed)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH)–Nov. 2 Flash Alert
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–Nov. 8 (confirmed)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Nov. 9 (estimate)
  • Poseidon Concepts Corp (TSX: PSN, OTC: POOSF)–Nov. 8 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Nov. 2 Flash Alert
  • Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–Nov. 6 (confirmed)

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