Flash Alert: Portfolio Update

This morning US Airways announced a takeover bid for bankrupt carrier Delta Airlines. The key players at Delta aren’t the shareholders, as shareholders’ investments are likely to be completely wiped out as part of the bankruptcy process. Instead, focus on the creditors and bondholders at Delta who actually control the airline and would own the new stock when it emerges from bankruptcy.

My preliminary look at the deal suggests the buyout gives bondholders roughly 50 cents on the dollar in a combination of cash and US Airways stock. While investors are still taking a hit, it’s a huge premium to where the bonds closed yesterday. Bottom line: The creditors will like this deal.

Of course, the deal would create an airline with the largest domestic capacity. Whenever a merger creates such a behemoth, the government regulatory authorities are going to take some time to bless the deal.

It should stand a good chance of approval because the airline industry has long been plagued by poor profitability, excessive capacity and too many competitors. If the airline business is ever to be profitable longer term, there will need to be fewer players.

In addition, US Airlines stock is flying today, up by as much as 16 percent this morning. That’s a clear sign that the market applauds the idea of consolidation; the airline industry is starting to get more respect as a legitimate business.

For years, the airlines have been seen as a money-losing zombie business dependent on periodic government handouts and creative bankruptcy reorganizations. Consolidation may help bring the post-1978 era of nonprofitability to an end.

At any rate, the deal is having a knock-on effect throughout the entire airline business, including Gushers Portfolio recommendation UAL Corp (NSDQ: UAUA), the parent of United Airlines. I suspect that traders are looking at UAL as a potential takeover candidate; United has an attractive network and some profitable overseas routes. In addition, several other airlines have expressed interest in joining the consolidation fray, including the world’s largest airline AMR Corp, parent of American Airlines.

While I see today’s news as a big positive for the airlines, we’re carrying a 30 percent-plus profit on UAL in just the month and a half since recommendation. From a technical perspective, UAL is now bumping up against significant resistance near its offering price earlier this year. (UAL emerged from bankruptcy last February.)

UAL investors will need to see additional clarity on the fate of the US Airways merger before bidding the stock much higher. For that reason, I’m recommending that you sell half of your position in UAL for at least 38.50 per share and book the significant gain. I’m also recommending that you raise your stop on the remaining shares to 32.25 to lock in a small gain on the second half of the position.

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