5/28/13: Sell Eagle Rock Energy Partners
When is a yield of more than 10 percent not worth the trouble? When it comes from Growth Portfolio holding Eagle Rock Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EROC), a smaller master limited partnership with multiple operational and commodity issues as well as distributable cash flow that covered just two-thirds of the distribution in the most recent quarter.
Sure, management claimed on the post-earnings conference call earlier this month that without the bad winter storms, one-off downtime and prior-period adjustments distributable cash flow would have been closer to 90 percent of the distribution. And sure enough, Eagle Rock plans to collect more cash than it distributes in the long run as the oil wells it’s drilling in Oklahoma start to pay off while its Texas gas gathering networks benefit from increased volumes and new customers.
But the bottom line is that this remains a speculative story dependent on the drilling decisions the natural gas producers feeding Eagle Rock’s pipes and plants the (still terrible) market pricing for natural gas liquids and Eagle Rock’s skill at assimilating the gas processing assets it recently acquired from BP (NYSE: BP), while at the same time delivering results from its very different oil producing venture.
That’s a lot of balls to keep in the air for a management team that’s recently dropped more than a few. We’d rather invest in more successful ventures, and there are lots of these around that don’t depend on a turnaround in commodity markets or other companies’ capital spending plans. So we’re removing Eagle Rock from the Growth Portfolio.
It’s possible, of course, that this amounts to “selling at the lows” and that unit holders who stick around for another six months, say, might get a couple of additional distributions as well as a higher exit price. But in general, when the best remaining reason to hold something is fear of selling at a low, it’s time to go. Sell EROC now.
Sure, management claimed on the post-earnings conference call earlier this month that without the bad winter storms, one-off downtime and prior-period adjustments distributable cash flow would have been closer to 90 percent of the distribution. And sure enough, Eagle Rock plans to collect more cash than it distributes in the long run as the oil wells it’s drilling in Oklahoma start to pay off while its Texas gas gathering networks benefit from increased volumes and new customers.
But the bottom line is that this remains a speculative story dependent on the drilling decisions the natural gas producers feeding Eagle Rock’s pipes and plants the (still terrible) market pricing for natural gas liquids and Eagle Rock’s skill at assimilating the gas processing assets it recently acquired from BP (NYSE: BP), while at the same time delivering results from its very different oil producing venture.
That’s a lot of balls to keep in the air for a management team that’s recently dropped more than a few. We’d rather invest in more successful ventures, and there are lots of these around that don’t depend on a turnaround in commodity markets or other companies’ capital spending plans. So we’re removing Eagle Rock from the Growth Portfolio.
It’s possible, of course, that this amounts to “selling at the lows” and that unit holders who stick around for another six months, say, might get a couple of additional distributions as well as a higher exit price. But in general, when the best remaining reason to hold something is fear of selling at a low, it’s time to go. Sell EROC now.
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